Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:21:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
33 0x3313…49c5 other 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-1%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate53%8W / 7L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day12.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% +$28
crypto 11% −$2
sports 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-34.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -28.0% -34.9% 53% 40% +3.0%
≤30d 15 -28.0% -34.9% 53% 40% +3.0%
≤90d 15 -28.0% -34.9% 53% 40% +3.0%
all 15 -28.0% -34.9% 53% 40% +3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.9% 40% +3.0%
10% -41.1% 7% -6.9%
15% -46.8% 7% -15.9%
20% -52.0% 0% -24.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -49% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×3.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.98 per $1 lost it wins $3.98
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses8 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage3d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day12.2
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +15%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$22 +22%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 -36%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $14 +$2 +18%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 $0 +4%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $8 +$3 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $20 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 84¢ $123 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 9h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 39h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 45h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 45h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 100¢ $3 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 45h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 90¢ $3 45h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 45h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 91¢ $1 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 77¢ $2 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 65¢ $2 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 63¢ $6 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.89 · official $19.89 (match) · 40 history records