Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:51:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x3312…ce17 crypto 555 markets active 6d ago coverage 60d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 59d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,657 (-20%) realized −$1,657 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate35%195W / 360L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day49.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$20
14 days−$22
30 days−$97
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$356
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 167 -4.1% -13.2% 49% 47% -7.6%
≤30d 387 -7.5% -16.3% 35% 27% -11.5%
≤90d 555 -8.9% -17.6% 35% 23% -13.4%
all 555 -8.9% -17.6% 35% 23% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.6% 23% -13.4%
10% ← realistic here -25.5% 18% -21.7%
15% -32.7% 15% -29.3%
20% -39.3% 13% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,657
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses195 / 360
Open positions0
Markets (closed)555 / 555
History coverage60d ⚠
Avg bet$15
Trades / day49.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 555 Trades
no open positions (82 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$6 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 11 $12 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 11 $8 +$8 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $8 +$8 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$6 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$9 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 11 $8 +$7 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 11 $7 +$9 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$7 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 11 $8 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$7 +223%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$3 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 11 $6 +$4 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$5 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 11 $8 +$8 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$6 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records