Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:15:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x330f…d4b1 crypto 213 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$47,243 (-34%) realized −$50,363 · open +$3,120
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%52W / 152L
Whale WR27%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$658per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$297est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$12,809now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12,684
7 days−$12,684
14 days−$12,684
30 days−$18,042
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 47% −$14,834
other 44% −$27,950
sports 8% −$3,082
world 0% −$378
politics 0% −$87
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-41.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 14 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 195 -34.5% -40.7% 26% 26% -44.1%
all 204 -35.5% -41.6% 25% 25% -44.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.6% 25% -44.4%
10% -47.2% 25% -49.7%
15% -52.3% 25% -54.6%
20% -57.0% 24% -59.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 27% (≥$848) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -20% → late -51% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$823 vs −$607 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$12,809
Realized−$50,363
Unrealized+$3,120
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses52 / 152
Whale WR (big bets)27%
Est. fees paid−$297
Open positions9
Markets (closed)204 / 213
History coverage99d
Avg bet$658
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 204 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 7¢ 26¢ $1,641 $6,213 +$4,572 (+279%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 13¢ 26¢ $1,500 $3,058 +$1,558 (+104%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1,400 $1,400 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 12¢ 5¢ $1,500 $644 −$856 (-57%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $1,200 $463 −$737 (-61%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $500 $327 −$173 (-35%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $500 $288 −$212 (-42%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 7¢ 2¢ $998 $249 −$748 (-75%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $450 $167 −$283 (-63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 125 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
South Africa leading at halftime? Jun 18 $987 −$964 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $2,365 −$2,300 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $2,622 −$2,550 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $2,035 −$1,980 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $2,659 −$2,590 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $2,361 −$2,300 -97%
Exact Score: Crystal Palace FC 1 - 3 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid? May 27 $514 −$500 -97%
Exact Score: Crystal Palace FC 1 - 2 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid? May 27 $513 −$500 -98%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $2,988 −$2,922 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 27 $588 −$560 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 27 $297 −$283 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 27 $251 −$240 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 27 $107 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 20 $253 −$253 -100%
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 0 - 0 Burnley FC? May 18 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 4 - 0 Burnley FC? May 18 $798 −$778 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 18 $391 +$412 +106%
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 2 - 2 Burnley FC? May 18 $262 −$255 -97%
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 3 - 1 Burnley FC? May 18 $385 −$375 -97%
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 1 - 1 Burnley FC? May 18 $464 −$451 -97%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $740 −$719 -97%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $738 −$722 -98%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $637 −$623 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 10 $1,963 −$1,963 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 10 $269 −$256 -95%
Will West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 10 $411 −$400 -97%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $1,701 −$1,659 -98%
Exact Score: West Ham United FC 1 - 0 Arsenal FC? May 10 $411 −$400 -97%
Exact Score: West Ham United FC 2 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 10 $292 −$284 -97%
Exact Score: West Ham United FC 2 - 0 Arsenal FC? May 10 $268 −$260 -97%
Exact Score: West Ham United FC 3 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 10 $30 −$29 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 10 $25 −$24 -95%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? May 06 $16 −$3 -15%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $2,120 −$2,072 -98%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 0 - 0 Paris Saint-Germain FC? May 06 $515 −$500 -97%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 4 - 3 Paris Saint-Germain FC? May 06 $991 −$963 -97%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 3 - 2 Paris Saint-Germain FC? May 06 $925 −$900 -97%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 2 - 2 Paris Saint-Germain FC? May 06 $1,130 −$1,100 -97%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 06 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 05 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 05 $1,124 −$1,071 -95%
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 2 - 1 Club Atlético de Madrid? May 05 $2,772 −$2,700 -97%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $2,440 −$1,996 -82%
Club Atlético de Madrid leading at halftime? May 05 $1,844 −$1,800 -98%
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 2 - 2 Club Atlético de Madrid? May 05 $1,028 −$1,000 -97%
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 3 - 1 Club Atlético de Madrid? May 05 $899 −$875 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 05 $450 −$425 -95%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $2,765 +$10,707 +387%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? May 04 $1,636 −$401 -24%
Nottingham Forest FC leading at halftime? May 04 $1,202 +$4,336 +361%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 7¢ $1,687 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 13¢ $1,539 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 3¢ $1,235 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 2¢ $515 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 7¢ $1,026 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $1,437 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $1,540 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 5¢ $514 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 1¢ $463 1h
South Africa leading at halftime? BUY Yes 18¢ $987 4h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 6¢ $617 4h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 6¢ $1,337 4h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa? BUY Yes 8¢ $1,256 4h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa? BUY Yes 6¢ $779 4h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 12¢ $2,659 5h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $2,361 5h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 6¢ $1,748 5h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 6¢ $1,285 5h
Exact Score: Crystal Palace FC 1 - 3 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid? BUY Yes 8¢ $514 22d
Exact Score: Crystal Palace FC 1 - 2 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid? BUY Yes 14¢ $513 22d
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? BUY Yes 25¢ $2,988 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $588 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $102 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $100 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $95 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $105 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $145 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $101 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $61 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,808.91 · official $11,771.46 · 431 history records