Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:50:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x330f…91b1 sports 931 markets active 0h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$164 (-1%) realized −$144 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%484W / 443L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day45.6pace
Fees−$381est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$254
7 days+$562
14 days+$747
30 days+$89
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$459
other 1% +$40
crypto 0% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 137 +11.0% +0.4% 59% 58% +2.7%
≤30d 456 -1.4% -10.8% 53% 53% -8.8%
≤90d 927 -1.8% -11.1% 52% 52% -10.8%
all 927 -1.8% -11.1% 52% 52% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.1% 52% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -19.6% 51% -19.3%
15% -27.4% 49% -27.1%
20% -34.5% 40% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$25 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized−$144
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses484 / 443
Est. fees paid−$381
Open positions3
Markets (closed)927 / 931
History coverage58d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day45.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 927 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner T1 Academy 59¢ 71¢ $30 $36 +$6 (+20%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Aurora Gaming 53¢ 51¢ $16 $15 −$1 (-4%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 50¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 317 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $26 +$24 +91%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $25 +$25 +101%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $33 −$32 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $19 +$51 +276%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $29 +$103 +359%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $52 +$59 +113%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $21 +$1 +4%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $45 −$27 -61%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $30 +$14 +47%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $61 +$117 +192%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $40 +$18 +44%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $26 +$24 +92%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs WinteR SquadronS - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $23 +$17 +72%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Jun 16 $31 +$19 +62%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $24 +$56 +238%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $65 −$64 -98%
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage Jun 15 $22 −$22 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $56 −$56 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $44 −$44 -99%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $22 +$18 +82%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $45 −$45 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $63 +$57 +91%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $45 +$93 +204%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $29 +$56 +196%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $27 +$33 +119%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $41 +$29 +69%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $30 +$20 +67%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $36 −$36 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $21 +$11 +54%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $33 +$17 +51%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $68 +$31 +46%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $49 +$30 +62%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $27 +$23 +85%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $54 +$36 +68%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $28 −$21 -77%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $30 −$24 -80%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $11 −$11 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $38 −$38 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $133 +$167 +125%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $23 −$23 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $49 −$48 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $35 +$65 +182%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $25 −$24 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $32 +$68 +209%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $13 +$7 +54%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $24 +$16 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 59¢ $30 24m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $50 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $50 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 50¢ $25 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 49¢ $25 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 52¢ $26 3h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 3h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 6h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) SELL Argentina 82¢ $82 7h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 82¢ $82 7h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 36¢ $11 8h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 26¢ $19 8h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $15 9h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $22 9h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 19¢ $29 9h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) SELL Norway 3¢ $2 9h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) SELL Norway 19¢ $15 9h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 88¢ $44 10h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 19¢ $15 11h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $30 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 96¢ $58 12h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 80¢ $125 13h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 18¢ $11 13h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 18¢ $0 13h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 18¢ $1 13h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 18¢ $2 13h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 18¢ $0 13h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 18¢ $3 13h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 35¢ $18 14h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 41¢ $25 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.83 · official $63.08 · 2900 history records