Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:19:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x330f…8ada other 111 markets active 6d ago coverage 687d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$85 (-6%) realized −$85 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate5%5W / 105L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$102
14 days−$102
30 days−$102
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$74
tech 13% −$14
sports 12% −$12
politics 8% −$7
world 6% −$7
weather 2% $0
economics 1% +$2
finance 1% $0
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 97 -9.4% -18.0% 4% 1% -16.4%
≤30d 97 -9.4% -18.0% 4% 1% -16.4%
≤90d 97 -9.4% -18.0% 4% 1% -16.4%
all 110 -10.3% -18.8% 5% 2% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.8% 2% -16.7%
10% -26.6% 1% -24.7%
15% -33.7% 1% -31.9%
20% -40.2% 0% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

687d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$85
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses5 / 105
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)110 / 111
History coverage687d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 110 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tread FDV above $150M one day after launch Jun 11 $2 $0 -0%
Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $29B? Jun 11 $5 $0 -3%
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in June 2026? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -46%
Will Micron Q3 NAND revenue be above $7.5B? Jun 11 $17 −$1 -3%
Will nocries play an HLTV-recorded match by June 30? Jun 11 $14 $0 -1%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $435 in June? Jun 11 $1 $0 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $17 $0 +0%
Will Chris Wood score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $4 −$1 -33%
Will the close USD/JPY price at the end of 2026 be less than 140? Jun 11 $3 −$1 -25%
Will 3jane launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $7 −$3 -46%
Will Éric Zemmour be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential el Jun 11 $5 −$2 -32%
Will Surf launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $14 $0 -3%
Will Jules Koundé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $13 −$2 -12%
Will Folarin Balogun score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $2 $0 -17%
Will Reece James score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $12 −$1 -6%
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $95B by June 30? Jun 11 $20 −$1 -3%
Will Mikel Merino score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -11%
Will jL appear as an analyst at an S-Tier CS tournament in 2026? Jun 11 $24 −$1 -6%
Will Darwin Nunez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $15 −$1 -4%
Will Fabián Ruiz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $14 −$1 -10%
Will Leandro Trossard score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $14 −$1 -4%
Will SD Almeria achieve promotion from LALIGA 2 to LALIGA for the 2026 Jun 11 $9 −$1 -9%
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 11 $19 −$3 -15%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $340 in June? Jun 11 $23 −$5 -22%
Will Cambria launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 11 $15 −$1 -5%
Tuyo FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 11 $4 $0 -9%
Will Christian Pulisic score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $13 −$1 -5%
Will Falcons reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $19 −$2 -8%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $520 in June? Jun 11 $5 $0 -5%
Will Wemby Cry During the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $7 $0 -4%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? Jun 11 $26 −$2 -8%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy explode? Jun 11 $4 −$1 -19%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $330 in June? Jun 11 $22 −$1 -6%
Will Reppo launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 11 $8 −$1 -9%
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 achieve a success Jun 11 $6 $0 -4%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 11 $30 −$3 -11%
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 11 $42 −$3 -6%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $375 in June? Jun 11 $28 −$1 -4%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $280 in June? Jun 11 $20 −$2 -10%
Will Joško Gvardiol score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $16 −$1 -8%
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $100B by December 31? Jun 11 $7 $0 -6%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $10 −$1 -6%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $690 in June? Jun 11 $8 $0 -3%
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH? Jun 11 $25 −$5 -19%
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $18 −$1 -3%
Will Weston McKennie score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $13 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 11 $0 $0 -99%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June Jun 11 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 11 $4 $0 +1%
Tuyo FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 11 $33 −$1 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tread FDV above $150M one day after launch SELL Yes 14¢ $0 5d
Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $29B? SELL No 52¢ $1 5d
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in June 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 5d
Will Micron Q3 NAND revenue be above $7.5B? SELL No 21¢ $0 5d
Will nocries play an HLTV-recorded match by June 30? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 5d
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $435 in June? SELL Yes 40¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $2 5d
Will Chris Wood score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 43¢ $2 5d
Will the close USD/JPY price at the end of 2026 be less than 140? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 5d
Will 3jane launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 20¢ $4 5d
Will Éric Zemmour be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential el SELL No 17¢ $3 5d
Will Surf launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 61¢ $13 5d
Will Surf launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $12 5d
Will Surf launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $2 5d
Will Jules Koundé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 79¢ $12 5d
Will Folarin Balogun score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 18¢ $1 5d
Will Jules Koundé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $10 5d
Will Folarin Balogun score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 21¢ $2 5d
Will Reece James score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 78¢ $12 5d
Will Reece James score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $12 5d
Will 3jane launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 35¢ $7 5d
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $95B by June 30? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 5d
Will Mikel Merino score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 31¢ $3 5d
Will jL appear as an analyst at an S-Tier CS tournament in 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $22 5d
Will jL appear as an analyst at an S-Tier CS tournament in 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $24 5d
Will Darwin Nunez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 72¢ $14 5d
Will Darwin Nunez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $15 5d
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $95B by June 30? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 5d
Will Mikel Merino score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 36¢ $2 5d
Will Mikel Merino score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 36¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 298 history records