Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:06:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x330e…cfa5 other 240 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$74 (-0%) realized −$74 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%7W / 232L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$205per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$17
14 days−$29
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$39
sports 25% −$21
politics 9% −$8
culture 7% −$8
economics 6% −$5
crypto 5% −$5
world 3% −$2
finance 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 80 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 183 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 239 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$74
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses7 / 232
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)239 / 240
History coverage128d
Avg bet$205
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 239 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 18 $226 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $232 −$1 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $369 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $753 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $403 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $133 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $193 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $437 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $363 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $664 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $439 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $225 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $443 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $175 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 15 $411 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $154 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $302 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $459 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $344 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $201 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $159 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $122 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $372 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $133 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $350 −$1 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $97 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $394 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $187 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $429 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $174 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $127 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $383 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $97 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 10 $573 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $306 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $714 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $308 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $344 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $229 $0 -0%
Will Columbus Crew win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $48 $0 -1%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $234 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $210 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $409 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $49 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $191 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $433 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $124 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $311 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $42 30m
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $42 1h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $42 2h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $42 4h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $42 6h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $42 8h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $42 10h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $42 14h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $42 15h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $42 17h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $43 19h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $43 20h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $43 21h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $43 23h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $43 24h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $43 33h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $43 35h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $43 36h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $43 37h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $43 39h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $43 41h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $43 42h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $43 44h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $43 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $43 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $43 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $43 2d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $43 2d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $43 2d
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $32 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.97 · official $41.97 (match) · 1390 history records