Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:21:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x330b…6e60 sports 190 markets active 1h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$258 (-8%) realized −$250 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate33%62W / 125L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$47est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days+$116
14 days+$138
30 days−$98
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$311
other 10% −$77
world 8% +$20
crypto 8% −$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-26.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 +12.5% +1.8% 35% 32% +1.4%
≤30d 131 -12.1% -20.5% 32% 31% -14.3%
≤90d 187 -18.5% -26.3% 33% 31% -22.2%
all 187 -18.5% -26.3% 33% 31% -22.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.3% 31% -22.2%
10% -33.3% 31% -29.6%
15% -39.8% 30% -36.4%
20% -45.7% 27% -42.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -43% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$15 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$250
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses62 / 125
Est. fees paid−$47
Open positions3
Markets (closed)187 / 190
History coverage53d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 187 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Yes 44¢ 34¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-24%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-15%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 116 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $7 +$62 +866%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 2 Panama? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 2 Panama? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -97%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $35 −$35 -99%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $30 +$31 +101%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $31 +$41 +134%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $8 +$3 +41%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 +$26 +128%
Spread: Jordan (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -93%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $41 +$67 +165%
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $25 +$34 +134%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $8 +$38 +464%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $15 +$15 +97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $15 +$1 +4%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $60 +$30 +51%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $15 +$34 +224%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $5 +$12 +240%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $7 +$54 +749%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $26 +$9 +37%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $15 +$12 +78%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -97%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 14 $20 +$42 +206%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 10¢ $7 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 7¢ $8 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 99¢ $69 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $7 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $8 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 3h
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 3h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 10¢ $7 3h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $31 3h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $35 3h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $61 4h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 4h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $30 7h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 7h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 7h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 9¢ $7 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $71 7h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 32¢ $11 8h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $8 9h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 9h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 9¢ $8 9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $31 9h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $46 20h
Spread: Jordan (-1.5) SELL Jordan 0¢ $1 20h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 49¢ $10 20h
Spread: Jordan (-1.5) BUY Jordan 3¢ $10 20h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 21h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 21h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $20 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.89 · official $26.89 (match) · 299 history records