Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:54:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
33 0x330b…69f1 other 697 markets active 1h ago coverage 591d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$26,993 (-6%) realized −$27,002 · open +$9
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate50%345W / 344L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$619per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$501est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$2,409now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$317
7 days+$346
14 days−$3,039
30 days−$149
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% −$30,819
sports 24% +$2,836
world 1% +$210
crypto 0% +$366
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.3% -9.8% 55% 55% -6.4%
≤30d 52 -0.4% -9.9% 56% 56% -10.0%
≤90d 140 +6.4% -3.7% 56% 56% -8.6%
all 689 -4.8% -13.9% 50% 49% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 49% -15.3%
10% -22.1% 46% -23.4%
15% -29.7% 38% -30.8%
20% -36.6% 29% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$800) neutral
Persistence
early -10% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$497 vs −$578 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

591d coverage
Net worth$2,409
Realized−$27,002
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses345 / 344
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$501
Open positions7
Markets (closed)689 / 697
History coverage591d
Avg bet$619
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 689 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Portugal 44¢ 46¢ $600 $620 +$20 (+3%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $420 $417 −$3 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $420 $417 −$3 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $360 $358 −$2 (-1%)
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Yes 39¢ 38¢ $240 $237 −$3 (-1%)
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 44¢ $180 $182 +$2 (+1%)
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Croatia 42¢ 42¢ $180 $178 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 250 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $305 +$409 +134%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 23 $183 +$164 +90%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 23 $129 +$59 +46%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $202 −$202 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $303 −$303 -100%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $354 −$354 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $152 +$174 +114%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $506 +$371 +73%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $203 −$200 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $305 −$300 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $505 +$276 +55%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $253 +$185 +73%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $253 +$126 +50%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $253 +$178 +70%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $506 +$371 +73%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $255 −$250 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $405 +$309 +76%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $708 +$439 +62%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $102 +$103 +101%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $355 −$350 -99%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $153 −$150 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $508 −$298 -59%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $508 +$492 +97%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $606 +$277 +46%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $305 −$82 -27%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $409 −$400 -98%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $603 +$103 +17%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $706 −$700 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1,007 −$1,000 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1,007 −$1,000 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $1,013 −$1,000 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $303 +$114 +38%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $131 −$45 -35%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $403 −$400 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $604 +$156 +26%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $354 −$350 -99%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 2 Czechia? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $504 +$190 +38%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $1,007 +$272 +27%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $1,008 −$1,000 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -94%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 May 30 $3,826 +$1,104 +29%
Exact Score: Crystal Palace FC 1 - 0 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid? May 28 $82 +$318 +388%
Exact Score: Crystal Palace FC 0 - 1 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid? May 27 $82 −$80 -98%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 3.5 May 24 $605 +$252 +42%
Burnley FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: O/U 3.5 May 24 $606 +$290 +48%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 3.5 May 24 $607 +$362 +60%
Sunderland AFC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 3.5 May 24 $606 +$264 +44%
Liverpool FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 3.5 May 24 $608 +$464 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $183 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $425 1h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 42¢ $183 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $424 1h
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $244 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $362 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 44¢ $610 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $305 16h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 52¢ $183 16h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 68¢ $129 20h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $152 2d
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 65¢ $354 2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $202 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $303 2d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 57¢ $506 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 49¢ $203 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 47¢ $305 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $505 3d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 32¢ $255 3d
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 57¢ $253 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $253 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $253 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $506 3d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $102 4d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $102 4d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score AND Scotland vs. Moro BUY 23¢ $102 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $405 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $708 4d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $355 4d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $153 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,408.65 · official $2,408.65 (match) · 1658 history records