Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:47:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x330a…0e45 other 16 markets active 5h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$155 (-6%) realized −$153 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%7W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$160per market
Trades / day11.8pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$298now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$24
sports 26% −$152
crypto 4% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -9.7% -18.3% 50% 50% -16.8%
≤30d 14 -9.7% -18.3% 50% 50% -16.8%
≤90d 14 -9.7% -18.3% 50% 50% -16.8%
all 14 -9.7% -18.3% 50% 50% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 50% -16.8%
10% -26.1% 50% -24.7%
15% -33.3% 43% -32.0%
20% -39.8% 29% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 50% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$103 vs −$128 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$298
Realized−$153
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses7 / 7
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage2d
Avg bet$160
Trades / day11.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $366 −$277 -76%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $203 +$73 +36%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $66 −$65 -99%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$63 +62%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $304 +$213 +70%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $101 +$29 +29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$58 +57%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $306 −$300 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $403 +$145 +36%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $51 +$141 +274%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $42 −$41 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 21¢ $77 5h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 5h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $66 9h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 10h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $202 10h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 10h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 30h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $101 30h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 30h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $517 30h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $304 33h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $130 33h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 55¢ $97 33h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 47¢ $81 33h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $85 35h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $101 35h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 38h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 38h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $306 2d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? SELL Yes 28¢ $192 2d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 11¢ $42 2d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 7¢ $51 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $403 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $297.60 · official $297.60 (match) · 30 history records