Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:37:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
33 0x330a…3675 crypto 48 markets active 0h ago coverage 198d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$60 (-6%) realized −$59 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate64%25W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$166now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days−$28
14 days−$28
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 46% −$45
other 45% −$41
world 8% −$26
sports 1% +$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +21.0% +9.5% 50% 50% -19.9%
≤30d 6 +21.0% +9.5% 50% 50% -19.9%
≤90d 7 +12.9% +2.2% 43% 43% -20.8%
all 39 +12.2% +1.5% 64% 41% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.5% 41% -17.7%
10% -8.2% 41% -25.6%
15% -17.1% 31% -32.8%
20% -25.2% 21% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% too few recent
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$18 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

198d coverage
Net worth$166
Realized−$59
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses25 / 14
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)39 / 48
History coverage198d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 67¢ 64¢ $38 $37 −$1 (-4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+7%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $11 $9 −$2 (-14%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+39%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $11 +$35 +329%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $94 −$90 -95%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $63 +$24 +38%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? Jun 20 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $53 +$31 +58%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $11 −$4 -35%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in March? Mar 17 $3 +$1 +40%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in March? Mar 17 $3 +$2 +59%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on December 1 Mar 02 $7 +$13 +180%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? Mar 02 $32 +$1 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in December? Mar 02 $50 −$50 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Mar 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,900 and $3,000 on December 17 Mar 02 $10 −$10 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Mar 02 $20 +$6 +30%
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Feb 28 $41 −$18 -44%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January? Jan 26 $5 +$2 +50%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? Jan 26 $30 +$9 +28%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in January? Jan 13 $20 +$14 +72%
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? Dec 28 $5 $0 -9%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Dec 28 $15 $0 -3%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Dec 28 $2 −$1 -26%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Dec 28 $22 −$1 -3%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Dec 27 $4 $0 +4%
Will the price of Solana be between $120 and $130 on December 18? Dec 18 $4 +$4 +96%
Will the price of Solana be between $120 and $130 on December 17? Dec 17 $15 +$8 +54%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on December 1 Dec 17 $8 +$11 +138%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on December 1 Dec 15 $14 +$6 +42%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 14 $50 −$24 -49%
Will Solana dip to $120 December 8-14? Dec 14 $26 +$2 +7%
Will Solana dip to $130 December 8-14? Dec 10 $44 −$19 -43%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on December 12? Dec 09 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on December 11? Dec 09 $10 +$3 +26%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 11? Dec 09 $30 +$8 +25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 9? Dec 08 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on December 9? Dec 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on December 9? Dec 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on December 7? Dec 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 7? Dec 07 $30 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $40 2m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 66¢ $40 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $43 9h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $52 9h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $46 10h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $11 12h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $94 15h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $87 33h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $63 44h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $53 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $9 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $12 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $16 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $13 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $17 2d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 36d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 36d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $11 36d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? BUY No 43¢ $10 48d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in March? SELL No 94¢ $5 96d
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in March? SELL Yes 81¢ $6 96d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in March? BUY No 67¢ $3 109d
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in March? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 109d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? BUY No 53¢ $18 109d
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL No 4¢ $1 114d
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January? SELL Yes 42¢ $7 146d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? SELL No 97¢ $39 146d
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 149d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $166.50 · official $166.50 (match) · 103 history records