Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:20:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
33 0x3305…fc1b crypto 34 markets active 3h ago coverage 322d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$545 (+11%) realized +$244 · open +$301
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate69%22W / 10L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$149per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$720now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$85
7 days+$85
14 days+$36
30 days+$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 55% +$709
crypto 27% −$176
tech 13% −$82
world 3% +$27
other 2% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +24.0% +12.2% 100% 100% +12.2%
≤30d 2 +6.5% -3.6% 50% 50% -5.4%
≤90d 12 -43.3% -48.7% 25% 25% -21.5%
all 32 +0.4% -9.1% 69% 53% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 53% -5.9%
10% -17.8% 25% -14.9%
15% -25.8% 12% -23.2%
20% -33.0% 9% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$51 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

322d coverage
Net worth$720
Realized+$244
Unrealized+$301
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses22 / 10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)32 / 34
History coverage322d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? Yes 34¢ 81¢ $219 $521 +$302 (+138%)
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026? Yes 97¢ 96¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 24 $353 +$85 +24%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $443 −$48 -11%
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Mar 28 $605 +$95 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Mar 28 $45 −$18 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Mar 28 $147 −$122 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Mar 28 $53 −$42 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Mar 28 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Mar 28 $272 −$68 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Mar 28 $70 +$12 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Mar 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Mar 28 $134 −$48 -36%
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Mar 28 $92 −$92 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Mar 21 $112 −$22 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Mar 06 $27 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Mar 06 $4 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Mar 06 $68 +$46 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Mar 06 $35 +$17 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Mar 06 $20 +$24 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Mar 05 $155 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Mar 05 $76 +$68 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Mar 05 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Mar 05 $9 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Mar 05 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Mar 05 $15 +$5 +31%
Will "The Epstein Files" reach #1 on Apple Podcast by March 15? Mar 05 $77 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Mar 05 $36 +$8 +22%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Mar 05 $36 $0 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 01 $63 +$13 +21%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jan 04 $101 +$14 +14%
Maduro out by November 30, 2025? Dec 02 $96 +$4 +4%
Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 15? Nov 16 $295 +$5 +2%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 06 $1,066 +$274 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 97¢ $200 2h
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 80¢ $353 7d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 6¢ $395 7d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 5¢ $110 31d
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? SELL Yes 46¢ $110 60d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 6¢ $333 85d
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? BUY Yes 34¢ $300 88d
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? SELL Yes 84¢ $377 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $12 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $11 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $14 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $8 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $9 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $8 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $23 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $0 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $0 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $10 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $1 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $1 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $1 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $1 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $3 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $1 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $1 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $1 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $1 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $1 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $2 110d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $719.53 · official $719.59 (match) · 321 history records