Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:21:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x3303…9217 world 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 536d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate43%23W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$10
world 40% −$3
sports 3% −$7
finance 3% +$5
politics 1% $0
economics 1% +$1
weather 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.2% -9.3% 29% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 28 +0.1% -9.4% 32% 4% -9.5%
≤90d 46 +0.6% -9.0% 39% 7% -9.4%
all 54 -1.2% -10.7% 43% 13% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 13% -9.8%
10% -19.2% 7% -18.4%
15% -27.0% 4% -26.3%
20% -34.2% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

536d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses23 / 31
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage536d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 50¢ 55¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 25 $38 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 24 $1 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $38 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $37 $0 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $37 +$1 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 21 $67 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $37 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $36 $0 +1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $33 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $47 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $1 $0 -5%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $15 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $17 +$3 +18%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $30 −$4 -15%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 11 $62 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $33 +$1 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $30 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $29 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $68 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $65 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $29 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $65 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $5 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $33 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $33 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 29 $80 −$1 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $17 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 24 $37 −$3 -7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $41 $0 +1%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $307 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $90 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in April 2026? Apr 24 $103 −$4 -4%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Apr 24 $104 +$2 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 23 $35 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $52 +$5 +11%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 17 $85 $0 +0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 16 $247 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $21 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 16 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $63 +$1 +2%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 15 $272 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $2 $0 +13%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 15 $31 +$1 +4%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 15 $271 $0 +0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 14 $37 +$1 +3%
Wright State vs. Green Bay Mar 03 $11 −$11 -100%
CSU Fullerton vs. CSU Bakersfield Feb 16 $9 +$2 +24%
Idaho State vs. Montana Feb 14 $4 +$5 +104%
Will the Eagles beat the Commanders by 7 or more points? Feb 05 $14 −$14 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 51¢ $11 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 51¢ $27 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 51¢ $38 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 20h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 22h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $38 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $38 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $29 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $8 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $37 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $37 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $37 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $26 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $11 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $37 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $37 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $37 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $37 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $36 7d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $20 7d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $13 7d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $33 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $14 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $13 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.16 · official $0.00 (match) · 229 history records