Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:00:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
33 0x3300…edab politics 114 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate11%13W / 101L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$286per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% −$14
other 41% −$14
sports 10% +$19
crypto 2% −$1
economics 2% −$1
tech 2% −$1
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 95 -3.6% -12.8% 5% 4% -9.7%
all 114 +1.3% -8.4% 11% 10% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 10% -9.6%
10% -17.1% 7% -18.2%
15% -25.1% 5% -26.1%
20% -32.5% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$2 · ×7.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses13 / 101
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)114 / 114
History coverage116d
Avg bet$286
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 114 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $30 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $49 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $330 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $45 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $277 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $347 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $366 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $317 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $490 −$1 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 24 $635 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 19 $278 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $238 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $278 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $946 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $237 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $556 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $234 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 29 $246 $0 +0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 22 $252 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 22 $341 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 21 $642 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $282 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $247 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $280 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? Apr 20 $303 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $339 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 19 $278 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 19 $257 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $290 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $289 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $613 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $281 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $313 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $303 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $528 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $323 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $321 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $291 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $719 −$1 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 15 $280 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $284 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $330 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $278 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $310 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 12 $292 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $351 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $240 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 11 $342 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $319 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $295 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 1h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 6h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $49 14h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $49 3d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $55 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $55 7d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $45 7d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $45 7d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $30 7d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $30 8d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $37 9d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $37 12d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $40 14d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $40 21d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $317 23d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $317 27d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $247 27d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $247 28d
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $308 28d
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $308 31d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $247 31d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $247 32d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $278 33d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $278 35d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $238 35d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $238 39d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $278 39d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $278 39d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $284 39d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $284 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 320 history records