Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:07:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
32 0x32ff…7803 sports 10 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$674 (+10%) realized +$959 · open −$285
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$659per market
Trades / day15.8pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$405now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% +$346
sports 27% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -7.8% -16.6% 57% 43% -0.1%
≤30d 7 -7.8% -16.6% 57% 43% -0.1%
≤90d 7 -7.8% -16.6% 57% 43% -0.1%
all 7 -7.8% -16.6% 57% 43% -0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.8 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.6% 43% -0.1%
10% ← realistic here -24.6% 43% -9.6%
15% -31.8% 43% -18.4%
20% -38.5% 43% -26.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$291 vs −$183 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.12 per $1 lost it wins $2.12
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$405
Realized+$959
Unrealized−$285
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions3
Markets (closed)7 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$659
Trades / day15.8
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 60¢ 28¢ $400 $191 −$209 (-52%)
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $190 $187 −$3 (-2%)
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Algeria 38¢ 10¢ $100 $28 −$72 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $663 +$478 +72%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $4,010 +$64 +2%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $235 +$129 +55%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $308 −$304 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $425 +$491 +116%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $197 −$194 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $194 6m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 28m
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Algeria 38¢ $102 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $354 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 35¢ $51 2h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $1,141 2h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $102 3h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $561 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $4,074 4h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 73¢ $364 4h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 46¢ $235 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $4,010 8h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 60¢ $308 11h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 25h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $197 26h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 26h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $312 27h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $405.46 · official $405.53 (match) · 19 history records