Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:06:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x32fa…d192 world 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 473d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate46%23W / 27L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% +$2
other 19% +$1
politics 6% +$2
crypto 4% +$1
culture 3% −$1
sports 3% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -3.8% -13.0% 0% 0% -11.5%
≤30d 14 +3.2% -6.6% 36% 7% -9.3%
≤90d 17 +2.4% -7.4% 41% 6% -9.3%
all 50 +0.8% -8.8% 46% 4% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 4% -9.2%
10% -17.5% 4% -17.9%
15% -25.5% 4% -25.8%
20% -32.8% 4% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

473d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses23 / 27
Open positions2
Markets (closed)50 / 52
History coverage473d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? No 83¢ 83¢ $56 $56 +$0 (+0%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 86¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $63 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $26 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $3 $0 -6%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $28 −$3 -12%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $51 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $60 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $38 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $67 +$2 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $28 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $61 −$2 -3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $7 +$4 +63%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 22 $76 +$1 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $53 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $10 −$1 -7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 20 $43 +$1 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 19 $55 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 15 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 06 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above $106,000 on July 4? Jul 04 $16 $0 +1%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Jul 04 $1 $0 -7%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Jul 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Jul 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 03 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jul 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 02 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will Eduardo del Castillo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times June 27–July 4? Jul 01 $16 +$1 +4%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 26 $17 $0 +2%
Will Oh Se-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 10 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Apr 09 $2 +$2 +100%
Will Tom Kim win The 2025 Masters? Apr 08 $16 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Apr 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 06 $15 $0 +0%
Will Rangers win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 05 $3 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 04 $16 $0 +0%
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April? Apr 03 $14 $0 +3%
Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? Mar 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Olaf Scholz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 27 $15 $0 +0%
Will 'Alto Knights' gross less than 5-7m on opening weekend? Mar 25 $15 $0 +2%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 22 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 again by March 31? Mar 20 $1 $0 -9%
Will Sue Bird make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of F Mar 20 $16 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-03-04? Mar 04 $15 $0 -0%
Grambling State vs. Bethune-Cookman Mar 03 $16 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $56 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $36 13h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $37 15h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $63 19h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $63 19h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $14 22h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $9 22h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 22h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $26 27h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $2 32h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 32h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $3 34h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 28¢ $1 46h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 28¢ $20 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 28¢ $3 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $28 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $50 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $16 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $34 2d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 87¢ $38 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 87¢ $10 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 87¢ $12 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 86¢ $35 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 86¢ $22 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 86¢ $2 24d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $38 24d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $38 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $14 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $35 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $11 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.48 · official $56.48 (match) · 170 history records