trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 7 | +160.4% | +135.6% | 57% | 29% | -2.1% |
| ≤90d | 7 | +160.4% | +135.6% | 57% | 29% | -2.1% |
| all | 21 | +49.5% | +35.2% | 62% | 14% | -6.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +35.2% | 14% | -6.1% |
| 10% | +22.3% | 10% | -15.1% |
| 15% | +10.5% | 10% | -23.3% |
| 20% | -0.4% | 10% | -30.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | No | 94¢ | 95¢ | $51 | $51 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | Jun 18 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | May 27 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | May 26 | $61 | +$2 | +3% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | May 26 | $53 | +$5 | +9% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | May 25 | $24 | $0 | -0% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | May 24 | $1 | $0 | +6% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | May 24 | $38 | +$1 | +4% |
| Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Dec 10 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec | Jun 05 | $2 | $0 | +4% |
| Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? | May 23 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? | Apr 25 | $1 | −$1 | -45% |
| Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? | Apr 13 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 | Apr 12 | $11 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Ludvig Aberg win The 2025 Masters? | Apr 09 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Apr 08 | $11 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Golden State Warriors make the NBA Playoffs? | Apr 07 | $11 | $0 | -3% |
| Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? | Apr 07 | $11 | $0 | -1% |
| Dogecoin above $0.17 on March 28? | Mar 27 | $2 | −$1 | -59% |
| Will 'Alto Knights' gross between 3-5m on opening weekend? | Mar 25 | $12 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 21 | $12 | $0 | +1% |
| San José State vs. Utah State | Mar 04 | $11 | +$1 | +14% |