Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:50:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x32f6…4edb world 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 485d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$10 (+3%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +50% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +35% what you keep after slip
Net edge+35%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate62%13W / 8L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 70% +$8
other 19% $0
sports 9% +$1
politics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)+35.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 7 +160.4% +135.6% 57% 29% -2.1%
≤90d 7 +160.4% +135.6% 57% 29% -2.1%
all 21 +49.5% +35.2% 62% 14% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +35.2% 14% -6.1%
10% +22.3% 10% -15.1%
15% +10.5% 10% -23.3%
20% -0.4% 10% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% too few recent
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +49% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +99% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.34 per $1 lost it wins $4.34
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

485d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses13 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)21 / 22
History coverage485d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 94¢ 95¢ $51 $51 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 27 $10 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $61 +$2 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $53 +$5 +9%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $24 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $1 $0 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $38 +$1 +4%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 10 $2 $0 +3%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec Jun 05 $2 $0 +4%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 23 $2 $0 +1%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 25 $1 −$1 -45%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? Apr 13 $9 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 Apr 12 $11 $0 -0%
Will Ludvig Aberg win The 2025 Masters? Apr 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 08 $11 $0 +1%
Will the Golden State Warriors make the NBA Playoffs? Apr 07 $11 $0 -3%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Apr 07 $11 $0 -1%
Dogecoin above $0.17 on March 28? Mar 27 $2 −$1 -59%
Will 'Alto Knights' gross between 3-5m on opening weekend? Mar 25 $12 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 21 $12 $0 +1%
San José State vs. Utah State Mar 04 $11 +$1 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $51 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $7 8h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $7 12h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $10 22d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $10 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 53¢ $22 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 53¢ $20 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $9 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $30 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 70¢ $10 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 70¢ $34 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 62¢ $39 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 29¢ $14 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 29¢ $14 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $10 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $12 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $22 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $24 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $24 24d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL Yes $0 24d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL Yes $1 24d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY Yes $1 24d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY Yes $1 24d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY Yes $0 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $3 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $15 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $4 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $17 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $3 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $35 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.82 · official $53.03 (match) · 71 history records