Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:44:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x32f5…b03f crypto 536 markets active 18h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$786 (-5%) realized −$786 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate44%238W / 298L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$4
14 days−$27
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,233
world 0% −$19
sports 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -46.4% -51.5% 28% 28% -14.1%
≤30d 33 -37.5% -43.5% 30% 30% -22.6%
≤90d 536 -10.5% -19.0% 44% 41% -16.7%
all 536 -10.5% -19.0% 44% 41% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.0% 41% -16.7%
10% -26.8% 38% -24.6%
15% -33.8% 34% -31.9%
20% -40.3% 30% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$19 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$786
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses238 / 298
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)536 / 536
History coverage86d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 536 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$8 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $17 +$6 +35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 11 $8 +$9 +111%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$2 +186%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 10 $7 −$7 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 10 $7 +$3 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 10 $23 −$23 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$2 +186%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$2 +157%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 24 $13 +$10 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Apr 18 $111 −$111 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Apr 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Apr 18 $102 +$10 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 18 $36 −$35 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Apr 18 $101 +$46 +45%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Apr 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Apr 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Apr 18 $1 +$3 +289%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Apr 18 $110 −$110 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Apr 18 $78 −$78 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Apr 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Apr 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Apr 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Apr 18 $78 +$38 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Apr 18 $282 −$282 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $9 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $9 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $23 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $17 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $18 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $8 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $10 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $7 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1348 history records