Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:36:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x32f4…6a6a other 115 markets active 2h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$138 (-0%) realized −$139 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate12%14W / 100L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,236per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$403now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$17
14 days−$33
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$64
politics 36% −$71
sports 7% −$32
culture 3% −$6
world 1% −$2
crypto 1% +$2
economics 0% −$1
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 40 +0.3% -9.2% 12% 8% -9.6%
≤90d 113 +6.3% -3.8% 12% 9% -9.6%
all 114 +6.3% -3.9% 12% 9% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.9% 9% -9.6%
10% -13.1% 9% -18.3%
15% -21.5% 8% -26.2%
20% -29.2% 8% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,433) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +14% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$5 · ×4.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$403
Realized−$139
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses14 / 100
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)114 / 115
History coverage90d
Avg bet$1,236
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $402 $403 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $4,034 −$4 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $814 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $1,528 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $2,486 −$3 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $4,209 −$4 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $706 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $667 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $910 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $2,526 −$3 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $857 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,216 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $1,216 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,057 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $2,439 −$4 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $1,053 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 05 $3,879 −$6 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $1,247 −$2 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $75 +$51 +67%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,176 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $1,076 −$2 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 03 $84 +$72 +86%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $2,525 −$4 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $436 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 02 $267 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 02 $577 +$1 +0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $3,408 −$5 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $549 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $610 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $1,888 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $3,010 −$3 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $495 −$1 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 25 $1,715 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $571 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $510 −$1 -0%
Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $53 +$34 +65%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $3,423 −$5 -0%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $614 −$1 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $458 −$1 -0%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians May 21 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $993 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $1,068 −$2 -0%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 19 $1,028 −$2 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $1,226 −$2 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $1,374 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $1,449 −$2 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 17 $1,488 −$2 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $1,477 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $1,433 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $295 1h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $295 6h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $812 2d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $814 2d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $791 2d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $793 2d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $891 2d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $892 2d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $765 3d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $766 3d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $705 4d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $706 4d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $734 4d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $735 4d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $666 5d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $667 5d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 99¢ $402 6d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $909 8d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $910 8d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,203 10d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,204 10d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $856 10d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $857 10d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,214 10d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,216 10d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,214 11d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,216 11d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,055 11d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,057 11d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,021 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $402.57 · official $402.57 (match) · 327 history records