Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:20:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
32 0x32f2…5ccb crypto 9 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$401 (+14%) realized +$381 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$324per market
Trades / day23.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$821now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$401
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +12.1% +1.4% 62% 62% +7.2%
≤30d 8 +12.1% +1.4% 62% 62% +7.2%
≤90d 8 +12.1% +1.4% 62% 62% +7.2%
all 8 +12.1% +1.4% 62% 62% +7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.4% 62% +7.2%
10% ← realistic here -8.3% 62% -3.1%
15% -17.1% 62% -12.4%
20% -25.3% 50% -21.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$200 vs −$206 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$821
Realized+$381
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$324
Trades / day23.0
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9AM ET Down 43¢ 44¢ $800 $821 +$21 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 25 $494 +$361 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 25 $386 −$369 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 25 $207 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8AM ET Jun 25 $411 +$182 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7AM ET Jun 25 $383 +$310 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 25 $103 +$87 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 25 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 25 $52 +$60 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $832 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $855 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $494 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $73 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $313 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $207 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $593 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $93 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $208 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $405 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $131 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $288 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $190 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $112 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $52 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $820.62 · official $783.74 · 23 history records