Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:27:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
32 0x32f2…1ac0 other 127 markets active 2h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$80 (-0%) realized −$80 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate6%8W / 119L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$242per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$16
politics 26% −$10
sports 17% −$53
crypto 4% −$1
economics 3% −$2
world 1% −$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 84 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 127 -3.9% -13.1% 6% 4% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 4% -9.8%
10% -21.4% 2% -18.4%
15% -29.0% 2% -26.3%
20% -35.9% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×3.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses8 / 119
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)127 / 127
History coverage136d
Avg bet$242
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 127 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $35 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 Jun 21 $24 $0 -0%
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 21 $30 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $220 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $181 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 25 $189 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $356 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $188 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 23 $171 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 21 $167 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 21 $226 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 20 $203 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? May 19 $165 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $193 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $224 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $232 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $371 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $347 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 14 $202 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 14 $208 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 13 $391 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $216 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $223 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $218 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $168 $0 -0%
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 10 $186 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $110 in April? May 09 $37 $0 +0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $230 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $203 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $677 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $237 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $593 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $224 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $218 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 17 $388 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 16 $440 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $180 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $234 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $589 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $194 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $210 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 13 $172 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $213 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $183 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 12 $208 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $210 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 10 $595 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 10 $218 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $215 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 08 $215 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 1h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 2d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $24 2d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $24 2d
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $30 2d
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $30 2d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $220 25d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $220 27d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $181 28d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $181 28d
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $189 29d
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $189 30d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $189 30d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $189 30d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $188 30d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $188 31d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $171 31d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $171 33d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 99¢ $167 33d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $167 33d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $226 33d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $226 34d
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $203 34d
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $203 34d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $165 35d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $165 35d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $193 37d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $193 37d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $224 37d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $224 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 367 history records