Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:38:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x32f1…c96e sports 639 markets active 1h ago coverage 52d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 51d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (62 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,957 (-3%) realized −$3,894 · open −$63
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate61%387W / 251L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$238per market
Trades / day61.9pace
Fees−$2,260est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 52d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$117
world 1% +$24
tech 0% −$152
other 0% −$19
politics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (62 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -19.5% -27.1% 46% 33% -29.5%
≤30d 316 -3.5% -12.7% 56% 49% -17.3%
≤90d 638 +1.6% -8.0% 61% 55% -7.4%
all 638 +1.6% -8.0% 61% 55% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover61.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.0% 55% -7.4%
10% ← realistic here -16.8% 46% -16.2%
15% -24.9% 37% -24.3%
20% -32.2% 26% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$127 vs −$198 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,894
Unrealized−$63
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses387 / 251
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$2,260
Open positions1
Markets (closed)638 / 639
History coverage52d ⚠
Avg bet$238
Trades / day61.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 638 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner T1 Academy 63¢ $63 $0 −$63 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 142 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $12 +$1 +5%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $39 −$16 -42%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $45 +$1 +2%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $85 −$62 -72%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $35 +$25 +70%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $14 +$16 +113%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $57 +$37 +65%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $56 +$41 +74%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-7.5) Jun 17 $56 +$54 +97%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-14.5) Jun 16 $50 +$50 +101%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 172.5 Jun 15 $53 −$52 -99%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 177.5 Jun 15 $52 −$51 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $70 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $28 +$2 +7%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $13 −$9 -71%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $52 +$22 +41%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 171.5 Jun 14 $86 −$44 -51%
Spread: New York Liberty (-13.5) Jun 14 $47 −$47 -100%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty: O/U 165.5 Jun 14 $111 −$65 -58%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-3.5) Jun 14 $212 +$38 +18%
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire Jun 14 $29 −$29 -99%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 14 $16 −$16 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $58 −$58 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 13 $446 −$440 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $45 −$44 -98%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 170.5 Jun 13 $203 −$200 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $72 +$3 +5%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $120 −$55 -46%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 168.5 Jun 13 $113 +$87 +76%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-8.5) Jun 12 $113 −$112 -99%
Will X Æ A-Xii be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I Jun 12 $48 −$39 -82%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $316 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO Jun 12 $270 −$91 -34%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $530 +$24 +4%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-10.5) Jun 12 $504 −$300 -60%
Spread: Dallas Wings (-6.5) Jun 12 $4 +$2 +43%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 169.5 Jun 12 $300 −$293 -98%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-3.5) Jun 12 $520 +$280 +54%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 172.5 Jun 12 $216 +$184 +85%
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 11 $29 −$22 -76%
Spread: Los Angeles Sparks (-6.5) Jun 11 $237 +$110 +46%
Spread: Los Angeles Sparks (-7.5) Jun 11 $240 +$160 +67%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $232 −$160 -69%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 11 $579 −$467 -81%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 168.5 Jun 11 $288 +$312 +108%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 169.5 Jun 11 $294 −$290 -98%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 162.5 Jun 10 $110 −$58 -53%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-3.5) Jun 10 $162 +$138 +85%
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 171.5 Jun 10 $306 +$294 +96%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5) Jun 10 $304 −$300 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes $1 43m
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes $3 44m
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes $0 44m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL Nongshim Esports Academy $2 45m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 41¢ $20 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 38¢ $39 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes $7 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $46 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL T1 Academy 12¢ $23 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 21¢ $20 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 21¢ $1 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 64¢ $64 2h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $45 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 63¢ $63 3h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes $4 3h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes $4 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 Academy 94¢ $94 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 57¢ $57 4h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes $2 4h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes $2 4h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 97¢ $92 5h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 97¢ $5 5h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 55¢ $56 5h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 58¢ $35 7h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 47¢ $2 8h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 47¢ $2 8h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 47¢ $2 8h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 47¢ $2 8h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 47¢ $2 8h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 47¢ $2 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.05 · official $0.05 (match) · 3500 history records