Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:43:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
32 0x32f1…593b sports 1222 markets active 0h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$67 (+2%) realized +$0 · open +$67
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate39%470W / 727L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day36.8pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$152now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$126
7 days−$19
14 days−$332
30 days−$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$54
other 23% +$32
crypto 0% +$13
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 165 +0.9% -8.7% 25% 25% -13.2%
≤30d 645 -7.3% -16.1% 26% 26% -12.6%
≤90d 1197 +0.4% -9.1% 39% 37% -8.8%
all 1197 +0.4% -9.1% 39% 37% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.1% 37% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -17.8% 36% -17.5%
15% -25.8% 31% -25.5%
20% -33.0% 27% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$152
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$67
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses470 / 727
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions25
Markets (closed)1197 / 1222
History coverage48d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day36.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 1197 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Under 10¢ 68¢ $7 $46 +$39 (+575%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? No 10¢ 38¢ $7 $28 +$21 (+294%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Under 27¢ 90¢ $3 $12 +$8 (+234%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Cabo Verde 26¢ 74¢ $4 $11 +$7 (+188%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Under 38¢ 92¢ $3 $9 +$5 (+146%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-5%)
Spain leading at halftime? No 25¢ 100¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+300%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 36¢ 100¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+178%)
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 33¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+154%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Over 38¢ 38¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Elise Mertens 38¢ 66¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+72%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? No 25¢ 24¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? No 37¢ 38¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? No 13¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Iraq 40¢ 40¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? No 40¢ 36¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-9%)
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) IR Iran 26¢ 26¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 21¢ 6¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-73%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Over 37¢ 10¢ $3 $1 −$3 (-73%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Yes 19¢ 6¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-68%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Over 36¢ 10¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-74%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Over 18¢ 2¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-86%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Over 12¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-96%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Over 16¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 202 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $2 +$7 +414%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $2 +$3 +165%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $3 +$11 +366%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $7 +$61 +874%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$7 +388%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$3 +152%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $2 −$1 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2 −$1 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$4 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$7 +414%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$4 +276%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
CD Universidad Católica vs. CD Universidad de Concepción: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 +$7 +414%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $3 +$7 +225%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $2 +$3 +165%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $4 −$3 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $9 −$4 -41%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $2 +$5 +307%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $4 +$19 +527%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $7 −$7 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $2 +$4 +180%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $4 −$3 -98%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $2 +$4 +172%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $4 +$15 +388%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $4 −$3 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 −$7 -97%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 16¢ $1 26m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 19¢ $2 36m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 24¢ $1 37m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 17¢ $2 37m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $2 42m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 22¢ $2 52m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 18¢ $2 58m
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $7 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 12¢ $2 1h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones BUY Talia Gibson 19¢ $2 1h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova BUY Elise Mertens 38¢ $2 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 36¢ $2 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Over 39¢ $2 1h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 26¢ $2 4h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Over 36¢ $2 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 10¢ $7 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 26¢ $1 6h
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari BUY Qinwen Zheng 37¢ $2 6h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 26¢ $2 6h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 27¢ $1 9h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 28¢ $2 10h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 37¢ $2 12h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 40¢ $2 12h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Under 37¢ $2 12h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY No 25¢ $2 12h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 25¢ $1 13h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 26¢ $1 14h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 25¢ $1 14h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 26¢ $2 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $152.13 · official $152.13 (match) · 2753 history records