Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:04:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

32 0x32ef…2e46 other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$78 (+26%) realized +$62 · open +$16

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +66% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +45% what you keep after slip

Net edge+45%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%4W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$59per market

Trades / day6.1pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$144now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+50.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+66.4%	+50.5%	100%	100%	+46.9%
≤30d	4	+66.4%	+50.5%	100%	100%	+46.9%
≤90d	4	+66.4%	+50.5%	100%	100%	+46.9%
all	4	+66.4%	+50.5%	100%	100%	+46.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.1 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+50.5%	100%	+46.9%
10%	+36.1%	100%	+32.9%
15%	+23.0%	75%	+20.0%
20%	+10.9%	75%	+8.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 48% · top 2 76% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +62% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +66% · $-wt +62% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$26 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$144

Realized+$62

Unrealized+$16

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses4 / 0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)4 / 5

History coverage1d

Avg bet$59

Trades / day6.1

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	89¢	100¢	$128	$144	+$16 (+12%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$78	+$50	+64%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$49	+$29	+59%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$15	+$17	+109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$24	+$8	+32%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$129	1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$129	2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	60¢	$78	4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$78	5h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	62¢	$49	7h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	47¢	$15	25h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	75¢	$24	29h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $144.25 · official $144.25 (match) · 9 history records