Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:16:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
32 0x32ee…27fa other 102 markets active 1h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$26 (-0%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate12%12W / 89L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$247per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$150now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$16
14 days−$16
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% −$2
politics 16% −$4
economics 5% −$2
world 3% −$1
sports 2% −$20
tech 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -20.1% -27.7% 0% 0% -11.8%
≤30d 17 -6.0% -14.9% 12% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 101 -0.8% -10.2% 12% 9% -9.6%
all 101 -0.8% -10.2% 12% 9% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 9% -9.6%
10% -18.8% 9% -18.3%
15% -26.7% 8% -26.2%
20% -33.9% 7% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×5.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$150
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses12 / 89
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)101 / 102
History coverage89d
Avg bet$247
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $150 $150 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $34 $0 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $37 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $508 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $30 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $41 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $84 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $35 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $1,385 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $228 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 02 $37 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $59 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 02 $75 $0 +0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $471 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $41 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $326 $0 -0%
Will Gillian Sherratt win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? May 23 $31 $0 +0%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 18 $221 $0 -0%
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 17 $241 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $235 $0 -0%
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 May 16 $231 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 16 $241 $0 -0%
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 14 $221 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $703 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $228 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $460 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 10 $423 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 10 $238 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $451 −$1 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $242 $0 +0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $464 −$1 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $640 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 05 $231 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $246 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $454 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $247 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $474 −$1 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $246 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $712 −$1 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 24 $239 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $241 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $706 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 18 $224 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Apr 17 $234 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $235 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 15 $237 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 15 $236 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $236 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 13 $249 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $464 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $34 1h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 7h
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $36 29h
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $37 32h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 52¢ $15 33h
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $47 45h
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $47 2d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 2d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 3d
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? BUY No 99¢ $150 5d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $41 7d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $41 8d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $50 8d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $50 8d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $33 9d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $33 10d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $35 13d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $35 13d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $36 14d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $36 15d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $37 15d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $37 15d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $37 17d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $37 17d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $38 18d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $38 18d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $41 20d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $41 21d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $59 23d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $29 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $149.64 · official $149.64 (match) · 309 history records