Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T12:12:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
32 0x32ee…26e6 sports 59 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$431 (-16%) realized −$466 · open +$35
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate46%26W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$134now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$47
7 days−$270
14 days−$440
30 days−$440
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$404
crypto 1% +$8
weather 1% −$4
other 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -12.0% -20.3% 46% 39% -20.6%
≤30d 57 -10.0% -18.5% 46% 39% -22.6%
≤90d 57 -10.0% -18.5% 46% 39% -22.6%
all 57 -10.0% -18.5% 46% 39% -22.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 39% -22.6%
10% -26.3% 39% -30.0%
15% -33.5% 33% -36.8%
20% -40.0% 32% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$20 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$134
Realized−$466
Unrealized+$35
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses26 / 31
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions2
Markets (closed)57 / 59
History coverage11d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: DN SOOPers vs LOS (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage DN SOOPers 73¢ 100¢ $62 $85 +$23 (+37%)
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs C9 DK 75¢ 99¢ $38 $49 +$12 (+32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Cloud9 (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 27 $50 −$2 -4%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 27 $50 +$12 +24%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $2 +$3 +206%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Isurus - Map 2 Winner Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 25 $4 −$4 -98%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 25 $325 −$34 -10%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 25 $10 +$11 +105%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $5 +$3 +62%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $53 −$53 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$8 +31%
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $251 −$206 -82%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $251 −$4 -2%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ Jun 24 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 24? Jun 24 $20 −$4 -22%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $11 −$11 -99%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 23 $9 +$11 +124%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $10 +$9 +88%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $6 +$5 +76%
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $469 +$12 +2%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $6 +$5 +78%
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A Jun 22 $200 +$10 +5%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WRAITH PCIFIC (BO3) - TESFED League Pl Jun 22 $3 −$3 -98%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -99%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $5 +$5 +97%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $5 +$4 +70%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $290 +$14 +5%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $10 +$4 +36%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $5 +$5 +93%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $30 +$8 +25%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $5 +$5 +97%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $14 −$14 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $10 +$11 +105%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $7 +$7 +100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $5 +$4 +83%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $6 +$6 +93%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $90 −$81 -90%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $71 +$2 +3%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $30 −$24 -78%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $30 −$20 -67%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs C9 BUY DK 75¢ $38 24m
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Cloud9 (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage SELL Dplus KIA 81¢ $49 29m
LoL: DN SOOPers vs LOS (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY DN SOOPers 81¢ $42 1h
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage SELL FlyQuest 100¢ $63 1h
LoL: DN SOOPers vs LOS (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY DN SOOPers 61¢ $20 1h
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY FlyQuest 80¢ $50 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Cloud9 (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY Dplus KIA 83¢ $50 2h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 41¢ $5 11h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 31¢ $4 11h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 32¢ $2 11h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Isurus - Map 2 Winner BUY Isurus 45¢ $10 17h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula BUY Walczaki 46¢ $10 20h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 59¢ $5 41h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 49¢ $4 41h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo SELL TEAM VISION 100¢ $175 41h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY TEAM VISION 78¢ $137 43h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo SELL TEAM VISION 57¢ $117 43h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY TEAM VISION 91¢ $188 46h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Team Spirit 49¢ $5 47h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Team Spirit 47¢ $5 47h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 51¢ $5 2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner BUY GamerLegion 76¢ $53 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $34 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 2d
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner SELL GamerLegion 16¢ $45 2d
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner BUY GamerLegion 87¢ $251 2d
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner SELL TEAM VISION 89¢ $246 2d
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner BUY TEAM VISION 90¢ $251 2d
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner BUY Inner Circle Esports 44¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $134.37 · official $134.20 (match) · 120 history records