Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:54:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5

score

32 0x32ed…2fd4 other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$1 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip

Net edge-30%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$13per market

Trades / day4.5pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)-26.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	-19.2%	-26.9%	67%	67%	-3.9%
≤30d	3	-19.2%	-26.9%	67%	67%	-3.9%
≤90d	3	-19.2%	-26.9%	67%	67%	-3.9%
all	3	-19.2%	-26.9%	67%	67%	-3.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.5 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-26.9%	67%	-3.9%
10%	-33.9%	33%	-13.1%
15%	-40.3%	0%	-21.5%
20%	-46.2%	0%	-29.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 61% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +6% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -19% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.58 per $1 lost it wins $1.58

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$4

Realized+$1

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$13

Trades / day4.5

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	46¢	38¢	$5	$4	−$1 (-18%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$26	+$3	+12%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$16	+$5	+30%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$5	−$5	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	46¢	$5	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$29	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$26	3h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	100¢	$21	27h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	76¢	$16	30h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	15¢	$5	32h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.08 · official $4.08 (match) · 6 history records