Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:43:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x32ed…f960 sports 865 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account
Total PnL +$1,246,762 (+183%) realized −$191,045 · open −$5,009
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate49%515W / 531L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$788per market
Trades / day410.3pace
Fees−$8,165est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$22,162now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$181,116
7 days−$191,045
14 days−$191,045
30 days−$191,045
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$36,917
other 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1046 +5.4% -4.6% 49% 46% -30.4%
≤30d 1046 +5.4% -4.6% 49% 46% -30.4%
≤90d 1046 +5.4% -4.6% 49% 46% -30.4%
all 1046 +5.4% -4.6% 49% 46% -30.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover410.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.6% 46% -30.4%
10% -13.8% 41% -37.0%
15% ← realistic here -22.1% 34% -43.1%
20% -29.7% 26% -48.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +45% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$461 vs −$807 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$22,162
Realized−$191,045
Unrealized−$5,009
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses515 / 531
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$8,165
Open positions37
Markets (closed)1046 / 865
History coverage7d
Avg bet$788
Trades / day410.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 37 History 1046 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Arizona Diamondbacks 46¢ 92¢ $5,183 $10,250 +$5,067 (+98%)
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants 59¢ 96¢ $3,371 $5,523 +$2,152 (+64%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Colorado Rockies 59¢ 96¢ $1,202 $1,952 +$750 (+62%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 53¢ 8¢ $7,422 $1,200 −$6,222 (-84%)
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5) Cincinnati Reds 79¢ 92¢ $358 $414 +$57 (+16%)
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Arizona Diamondbacks 76¢ 100¢ $252 $328 +$77 (+30%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Under 62¢ 88¢ $183 $260 +$77 (+42%)
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Colorado Rockies 54¢ 96¢ $122 $217 +$95 (+78%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Under 31¢ 75¢ $88 $215 +$126 (+143%)
Spread: Athletics (-3.5) Colorado Rockies 61¢ 100¢ $127 $209 +$82 (+65%)
Spread: Athletics (-4.5) Colorado Rockies 62¢ 93¢ $130 $193 +$63 (+49%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5 Under 77¢ 96¢ $142 $176 +$35 (+24%)
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5 Over 59¢ 44¢ $204 $153 −$51 (-25%)
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) Colorado Rockies 43¢ 94¢ $69 $148 +$79 (+115%)
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5 Under 59¢ 56¢ $143 $135 −$8 (-6%)
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Arizona Diamondbacks 57¢ 96¢ $68 $115 +$47 (+69%)
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5) Cincinnati Reds 78¢ 94¢ $93 $112 +$20 (+21%)
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-3.5) Colorado Rockies 32¢ 74¢ $38 $88 +$50 (+131%)
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5) Tampa Bay Rays 71¢ 90¢ $68 $86 +$19 (+27%)
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5 Over 51¢ 28¢ $132 $72 −$60 (-46%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5 Under 81¢ 97¢ $40 $48 +$8 (+20%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5 Over 35¢ 14¢ $94 $37 −$56 (-60%)
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) San Francisco Giants 70¢ 95¢ $24 $33 +$9 (+36%)
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Tampa Bay Rays 57¢ 55¢ $34 $32 −$1 (-4%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Athletics 48¢ 4¢ $375 $31 −$344 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +33%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +69%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 12.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +20%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +32%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +33%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 11.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +28%
Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire: O/U 160.5 Jun 14 $1,140 −$1,140 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $811 −$811 -100%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +21%
Seattle Storm vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 161.5 Jun 14 $0 $0 +150%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $0 $0 +108%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5) Jun 14 $0 $0 +39%
Seattle Storm vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 167.5 Jun 14 $0 $0 +89%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 14 $0 $0 +30%
Spread: New York Mets (-2.5) Jun 14 $0 $0 +30%
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Jun 14 $0 $0 +45%
Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5) Jun 14 $0 $0 +35%
Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5) Jun 14 $0 $0 +16%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $0 $0 +54%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $0 $0 +3%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $0 $0 +70%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $0 $0 +64%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-10.5) Jun 14 $116 −$116 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 201.5 Jun 14 $0 $0 +186%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $0 $0 +41%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 14 $0 $0 +26%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Jun 14 $0 $0 +122%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $0 $0 +54%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5) Jun 14 $0 $0 +11%
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $0 $0 +3%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-6.5) Jun 14 $0 $0 +19%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 14 $0 $0 +61%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5) Jun 14 $0 $0 +49%
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) Jun 14 $0 $0 +37%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 222.5 Jun 14 $0 $0 +18%
Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty: O/U 174.5 Jun 14 $0 $0 +72%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-4.5) Jun 14 $0 $0 +270%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $0 $0 +70%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $0 $0 +37%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) Jun 14 $0 $0 +72%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5) Jun 14 $0 $0 +37%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-7.5) Jun 14 $0 $0 +5%
Spread: Thunder (-7.5) Jun 14 $72 −$72 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) Jun 14 $233 −$233 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Islanders: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $678 −$678 -100%
Jazz vs. Suns: O/U 233.5 Jun 14 $418 −$418 -100%
Spread: Nuggets (-9.5) Jun 14 $934 −$944 -101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 81¢ $16 12m
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 76¢ $237 13m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 77¢ $18 14m
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 57¢ $34 15m
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 59¢ $3 20m
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 53¢ $27 20m
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 43¢ $0 25m
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 56¢ $20 25m
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5) BUY San Francisco Giants 66¢ $23 29m
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 52¢ $4 34m
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5) BUY San Francisco Giants 37¢ $0 38m
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-4.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 78¢ $4 38m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 29¢ $1 45m
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 72¢ $6 45m
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 67¢ $1 53m
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) BUY Athletics 26¢ $1 53m
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 88¢ $221 54m
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 85¢ $222 54m
Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5) BUY New York Yankees 74¢ $866 54m
Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5) BUY New York Yankees 74¢ $3 54m
Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5) BUY New York Yankees 74¢ $3 56m
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 173.5 BUY Over 70¢ $789 56m
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) BUY Chicago White Sox 94¢ $0 57m
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 172.5 BUY Under 36¢ $3 58m
Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5) BUY New York Yankees 74¢ $27 58m
Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5) BUY New York Yankees 74¢ $3 58m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 83¢ $42 1h
Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5) BUY New York Yankees 67¢ $7 1h
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) BUY San Francisco Giants 70¢ $25 1h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 86¢ $22 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22,162.39 · official $22,133.62 (match) · 3500 history records