Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:38:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
32 0x32ec…c4af crypto 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 1121d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$1,056 (+25%) realized +$926 · open +$130
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +94% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +76% what you keep after slip
Net edge+76%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate50%14W / 14L
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$148per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$195now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$459
7 days−$19
14 days+$154
30 days+$154
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 43% +$315
other 39% −$534
politics 14% +$452
sports 4% +$627
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+75.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +183.8% +156.7% 67% 67% -10.7%
≤30d 19 +137.7% +115.1% 58% 58% -3.8%
≤90d 19 +137.7% +115.1% 58% 58% -3.8%
all 28 +93.9% +75.5% 50% 46% +8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +75.5% 46% +8.5%
10% +58.7% 46% -1.9%
15% +43.3% 46% -11.4%
20% +29.3% 43% -20.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +94% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late +209% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$196 vs −$144 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1121d coverage
Net worth$195
Realized+$926
Unrealized+$130
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses14 / 14
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage1121d
Avg bet$148
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Down 16¢ 50¢ $65 $195 +$130 (+200%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 22 $53 +$151 +288%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 22 $53 +$175 +331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 22 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $605 −$605 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $203 −$201 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 20 $30 +$48 +159%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$56 +55%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $204 −$12 -6%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$46 +46%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$255 +250%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$66 +1290%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$28 +93%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $51 +$306 +596%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 13 $52 +$62 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $27 −$25 -94%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $304 +$296 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 11 $334 −$325 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $41 −$40 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Nov 05 $300 −$290 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Nov 05 $266 −$197 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Nov 05 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 1PM ET Nov 04 $149 +$11 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 11AM ET Nov 04 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 12PM ET Nov 03 $200 −$56 -28%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November? Dec 01 $150 +$788 +525%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $600 +$452 +75%
Will $ARB hit $1 or $2 first? Oct 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $204 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $27 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $605 8h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $202 18h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $4 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 35h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 99¢ $157 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 39¢ $191 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $204 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 5d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $52 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $27 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $103 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $103 10d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $194.93 · official $194.93 (match) · 163 history records