Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:46:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
32 0x32ea…105d crypto 196 markets active 1h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,629 (+15%) realized +$1,644 · open −$15
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate49%95W / 98L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day13.5pace
Fees−$46est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$406now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$106
7 days+$201
14 days+$642
30 days+$404
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% +$752
sports 25% −$330
other 4% −$42
weather 1% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 +34.5% +21.7% 43% 41% -5.8%
≤30d 148 +10.9% +0.3% 45% 41% -5.6%
≤90d 193 +6.1% -4.0% 49% 41% -6.1%
all 193 +6.1% -4.0% 49% 41% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.0% 41% -6.1%
10% -13.2% 33% -15.1%
15% -21.6% 28% -23.3%
20% -29.3% 22% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$39 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$406
Realized+$1,644
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses95 / 98
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions3
Markets (closed)193 / 196
History coverage40d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day13.5
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 193 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 42¢ 42¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Under 39¢ 38¢ $200 $197 −$3 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 20? Yes 21¢ 11¢ $21 $11 −$10 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $172 −$167 -97%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $184 −$180 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $145 −$142 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $121 −$118 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $53 −$52 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $61 +$39 +64%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 17? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $66 +$33 +50%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $38 −$38 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $87 +$113 +130%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $29 −$29 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $71 +$99 +140%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $71 +$130 +183%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $58 +$31 +53%
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 19? Jun 20 $88 −$88 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $67 −$67 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 19? Jun 20 $37 −$37 -100%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? Jun 20 $27 −$27 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $108 +$95 +88%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $54 +$46 +86%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $64 +$40 +63%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $38 +$64 +170%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 19? Jun 19 $26 +$25 +98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $23 −$2 -10%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $37 −$20 -55%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $163 +$205 +126%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $29 +$74 +258%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $80 −$10 -12%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $27 −$17 -64%
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 18? Jun 18 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $40 −$34 -85%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $33 −$33 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 17 $344 +$305 +88%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $24 +$57 +235%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 +$90 +462%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $41 −$34 -84%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 15-21? Jun 17 $14 −$9 -64%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $32 +$214 +669%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $31 +$7 +24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $27 +$8 +29%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 −$1 -5%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 42¢ $204 44m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 BUY Under 39¢ $205 46m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 30¢ $62 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 25¢ $110 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 24¢ $31 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 24¢ $51 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 BUY Under 54¢ $111 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 50¢ $102 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 18¢ $38 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under $9 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 29¢ $32 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 50¢ $51 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $100 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 20? SELL Yes 99¢ $99 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $61 6h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $44 7h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 BUY Under 32¢ $34 7h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 21¢ $22 12h
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 64¢ $66 13h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 30¢ $31 16h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $56 17h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 BUY Under 36¢ $38 17h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 99¢ $169 17h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $200 17h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 SELL Under 88¢ $89 17h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 34¢ $71 18h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 29¢ $19 18h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 27¢ $29 19h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $203 19h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 BUY Under 56¢ $58 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $406.05 · official $406.55 (match) · 609 history records