Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:01:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
32 0x32e5…8b41 sports 84 markets active 2h ago coverage 738d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL −$641 (-3%) realized −$615 · open −$26
Gross ROI / mkt +41% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +28% what you keep after slip
Net edge+28%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate49%36W / 37L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$236per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$264
7 days+$413
14 days+$1,306
30 days+$1,221
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$724
other 7% +$341
economics 3% +$2
crypto 1% −$16
politics 0% +$1
world 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+27.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +94.9% +76.4% 56% 56% +41.9%
≤30d 27 +114.9% +94.5% 44% 44% +89.8%
≤90d 32 +101.9% +82.7% 47% 44% +27.0%
all 73 +41.0% +27.6% 49% 40% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +27.6% 40% -11.3%
10% +15.4% 38% -19.8%
15% +4.2% 36% -27.5%
20% -6.0% 36% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +40% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +41% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -18% → late +99% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$257 vs −$260 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

738d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$615
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses36 / 37
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)73 / 84
History coverage738d
Avg bet$236
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 54¢ 30¢ $60 $34 −$26 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $101 +$62 +61%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $100 +$75 +75%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $20 +$56 +282%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $101 +$71 +70%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) AND Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Bosnia and He Jun 25 $10 +$53 +515%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $102 +$123 +121%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: France Jun 23 $10 +$44 +425%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $5 +$31 +596%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $101 +$74 +73%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AND Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) AND Will United State Jun 20 $10 +$55 +537%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $203 +$182 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $40 +$703 +1758%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $82 −$80 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $205 +$665 +325%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5) May 16 $702 −$691 -98%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-17? May 14 $276 −$270 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET May 07 $1 $0 +4%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 07 $50 +$15 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Mar 26 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Mar 26 $10 +$10 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Mar 26 $6 +$29 +485%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Mar 26 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Mar 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Mar 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Mar 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Mar 26 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) Mar 18 $778 +$690 +89%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) Mar 17 $901 −$900 -100%
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 3.5 Mar 14 $1,836 −$1,835 -100%
Deportivo Alavés vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 2.5 Mar 14 $1,964 +$1,742 +89%
Panathinaikós AO vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 2.5 Mar 13 $1,100 +$903 +82%
VfB Stuttgart vs. FC Porto: O/U 2.5 Mar 12 $2,480 −$2,480 -100%
Norwich City FC vs. Sheffield United FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 12 $1,217 +$898 +74%
Birmingham City FC vs. Queens Park Rangers FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 12 $356 +$325 +91%
Coventry City FC vs. Preston North End FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 11 $200 −$200 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $61 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 90¢ $163 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $101 4h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $101 30h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) AND Spread: Belgium (-2.5) AND Will Spain win on BUY 18¢ $10 30h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 BUY 26¢ $20 30h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY 56¢ $100 30h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 AND Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 AN BUY $20 39h
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND New Zealand vs. B BUY 13¢ $10 41h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 37¢ $51 2d
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) AND BUY 12¢ $10 2d
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? A BUY 21¢ $20 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) AND Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Bosnia and He BUY 16¢ $10 3d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Portugal 99¢ $225 4d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 44¢ $102 4d
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes $5 5d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: France BUY 19¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes $5 5d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 6d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY 28¢ $20 6d
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 6d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 57¢ $101 6d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 AND Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 AN BUY $10 6d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes $5 6d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgiu BUY 18¢ $10 6d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes $5 7d
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes $5 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 23¢ $20 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.89 · official $37.22 · 180 history records