Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:06:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x32e5…f608 other 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 316d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$52 (-5%) realized −$52 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate23%9W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$2
other 27% −$55
sports 11% $0
politics 8% $0
weather 5% $0
crypto 4% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.2% -9.4% 17% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 15 +0.8% -8.8% 20% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 15 +0.8% -8.8% 20% 0% -9.3%
all 39 -2.1% -11.4% 23% 3% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 3% -13.9%
10% -19.9% 0% -22.1%
15% -27.6% 0% -29.6%
20% -34.7% 0% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

316d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$52
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses9 / 30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage316d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $53 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $22 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $59 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $59 $0 -1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $59 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $53 +$1 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $4 $0 +2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $58 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $50 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $5 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $53 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $16 $0 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $21 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 05 $78 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $11 +$1 +10%
Will Max Verstappen finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jan 30 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Dec 21 $2 $0 +4%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $6 $0 +4%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Aug 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 14 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Jerome Powell in August? Aug 14 $4 $0 -4%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 14 $11 −$1 -7%
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in August? Aug 14 $35 $0 +1%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 13 $47 $0 -0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 13 $5 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 12 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 12 $4 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 455–469 times August 8–August 15? Aug 11 $41 −$2 -5%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will inflation reach more than 10% in 2025? Aug 11 $54 $0 +1%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 10 $1 $0 +15%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 10 $49 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 82-83°F on August 9? Aug 09 $52 $0 -0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 08 $54 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 08 $3 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $53 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $31 4h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $23 4h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 4h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 4h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 4h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 4h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 4h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $22 7h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $59 12h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $59 14h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $6 24h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $12 24h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 49¢ $14 25h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 49¢ $5 25h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $5 29h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $55 29h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $59 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 64¢ $22 42h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 64¢ $32 42h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $32 43h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $21 43h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 12d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 12d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 12d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 12d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $50 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $50 13d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 149 history records