Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:07:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x32e5…727a crypto 96 markets active 11h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$58 (-6%) realized −$58 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate40%37W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day23.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$75
14 days−$89
30 days−$89
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% −$73
sports 37% +$13
other 13% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -10.5% -19.0% 38% 38% -20.9%
≤30d 93 -11.5% -19.9% 40% 39% -18.7%
≤90d 93 -11.5% -19.9% 40% 39% -18.7%
all 93 -11.5% -19.9% 40% 39% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.9% 39% -18.7%
10% ← realistic here -27.6% 38% -26.5%
15% -34.6% 38% -33.6%
20% -41.0% 34% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$7 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$58
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses37 / 56
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)93 / 96
History coverage8d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day23.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 93 Trades
no open positions (34 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$3 +70%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $38 −$14 -35%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$18 -85%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $29 −$25 -87%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$16 +152%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$18 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$22 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$3 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$6 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$5 +134%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 +$5 +97%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $3 $0 -3%
Spread: France (-2.5) AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Arge Jun 16 $4 −$1 -26%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -75%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $13 −$6 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +90%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$7 -66%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 +$5 +109%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $9 −$9 -99%
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -11%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $6 −$6 -99%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $51 −$3 -6%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 +$5 +99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $5 +$2 +50%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $8 −$8 -99%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $7 −$7 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $7 +$10 +134%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Netherlands reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $10 −$2 -20%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 +$6 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $6 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $4 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $2 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $23 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 11h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $3 11h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 11h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 11h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $4 11h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $10 11h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 11h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $8 11h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 11h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 11h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 12h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 12h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 12h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $11 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $4 14h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 28h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 71¢ $3 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 207 history records