Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:22:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

32
0x32e0…3884
weather · 1127 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$438 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$514 · open −$28
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$35
Realized−$514
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses380 / 737
Open positions11
Markets (closed)1117 / 1127
History coverage62d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day29.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 11 History 1117 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days−$88
14 days−$69
30 days−$679
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 15? Yes 13¢ 24¢ $7 $13 +$6 (+84%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 15? Yes 45¢ 36¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-20%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 15? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-20%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 15? Yes 33¢ 22¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-33%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 5? Yes 20¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+400%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 4? Yes 21¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+380%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 4? Yes 25¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+300%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 4? Yes 30¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+233%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 2? Yes 31¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+223%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 8? Yes 32¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+212%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 3? Yes 33¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+203%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 11? Yes 34¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+194%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 7? Yes 37¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+170%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 4? Yes 36¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+178%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 5? Yes 44¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+127%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? Yes 42¢ 83¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+97%)
Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31? Yes 70¢ 42¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-40%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 14? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 14? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 14? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 2? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 4? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 4? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 13? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? Jun 14 $7 +$8 +116%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $7 +$12 +162%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on June 13? Jun 14 $8 +$15 +204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 12? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 12? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 76% −$355
crypto 23% −$177
other 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 15¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? SELL Yes 83¢ $14 2h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY Yes 9¢ $7 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $8 10h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 45¢ $7 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 14h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? BUY Yes 41¢ $7 15h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 13¢ $7 15h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 15h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 14? BUY Yes 34¢ $7 16h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 32¢ $8 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $4 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $4 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $4 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 34h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 42¢ $7 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $4 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $4 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $4 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $4 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 96 +3.7% -6.2% 51% 51% -23.5%
≤30d 550 -14.5% -22.6% 25% 24% -26.2%
≤90d 1117 +2.8% -7.0% 34% 32% -17.0%
all 1117 +2.8% -7.0% 34% 32% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover29.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.0% 32% -17.0%
10% ← realistic here -15.9% 30% -25.0%
15% -24.0% 26% -32.2%
20% -31.5% 23% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.20 · official $29.30 · 3500 history records