Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:50:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
32 0x32e0…87dc sports 41 markets active 0h ago coverage 144d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialist
Total PnL +$220 (+19%) realized +$214 · open +$6
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR69%break-even
Win rate74%26W / 9L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$183now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$3
other 26% +$102
world 17% +$143
politics 6% −$31
finance 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +69%
net ROI/market (all)+15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +14.0% +3.2% 100% 50% +2.9%
≤30d 12 +14.0% +3.2% 83% 75% +1.0%
≤90d 28 +25.6% +13.7% 82% 75% +5.8%
all 35 +28.0% +15.8% 74% 69% +9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.8% 69% +9.1%
10% +4.7% 43% -1.3%
15% -5.4% 34% -10.9%
20% -14.7% 29% -19.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +46% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$35 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$183
Realized+$214
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses26 / 9
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions6
Markets (closed)35 / 41
History coverage144d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 95¢ 98¢ $35 $36 +$1 (+3%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 88¢ 99¢ $30 $34 +$4 (+13%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? No 83¢ 82¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? No 76¢ 76¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 99¢ $23 $25 +$2 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $20 +$4 +18%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Mast Jun 18 $23 +$2 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 09 $27 +$3 +12%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 09 $16 +$16 +101%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 03 $15 −$15 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 03 $23 +$7 +32%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 03 $21 +$12 +57%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 03 $56 +$8 +15%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 26 $20 +$3 +14%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 26 $22 +$10 +44%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 26 $27 +$17 +65%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 21 $13 +$6 +44%
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? May 21 $20 +$7 +34%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? May 21 $25 +$4 +14%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 21 $28 +$6 +20%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? May 13 $35 −$35 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 06 $23 +$3 +14%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? May 06 $28 +$8 +27%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 06 $49 +$10 +20%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? May 05 $20 +$2 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 05 $18 +$4 +19%
Warriors vs. Clippers Apr 22 $14 +$27 +188%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 22 $30 +$36 +119%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 15 $32 +$63 +197%
Magic vs. Raptors Apr 11 $60 −$60 -100%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? Apr 11 $28 −$28 -100%
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Houston Cougars Mar 29 $30 +$43 +143%
Heat vs. 76ers Mar 24 $21 +$17 +82%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Mar 24 $33 +$161 +488%
Kings vs. Grizzlies Feb 25 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Oly Feb 23 $46 +$42 +92%
UFC Fight Night: Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez (Middleweight, Feb 22 $36 −$36 -100%
Knicks vs. Celtics Feb 18 $36 −$36 -100%
UFC 325: Finney vs. Malkoun (Middleweight, Prelims) Feb 08 $54 −$54 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY No 83¢ $33 3m
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $27 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $29 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $23 6d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY No 84¢ $20 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $35 6d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 91¢ $23 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $33 15d
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Lynn Vision 49¢ $16 21d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $27 21d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY No 88¢ $30 21d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 63¢ $21 29d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY PARIVISION 75¢ $23 29d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Hanwha Life Esports 87¢ $20 34d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 72¢ $15 34d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $27 34d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 69¢ $22 34d
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $20 40d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs BUY Spirit 69¢ $13 40d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? BUY No 87¢ $29 42d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? BUY No 87¢ $27 42d
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 82¢ $28 48d
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 87¢ $25 48d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? BUY No 83¢ $49 49d
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $28 49d
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 87¢ $23 49d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $18 63d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? BUY No 91¢ $20 63d
Warriors vs. Clippers BUY Warriors 34¢ $14 70d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Weibo Gaming 45¢ $30 70d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $183.11 · official $183.11 (match) · 76 history records