Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:51:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x32df…cce8 sports 556 markets active 1h ago coverage 192d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$8,073 (-8%) realized −$8,099 · open +$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate60%328W / 216L
Whale WR49%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$179per market
Trades / day13.5pace
Fees−$304est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$345now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$464
7 days−$4,487
14 days−$4,487
30 days−$8,847
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$7,382
sports 32% −$486
crypto 13% −$3,313
politics 8% +$1,743
weather 3% −$97
world 2% +$598
finance 1% +$298
tech 1% +$119
culture 1% +$14
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -16.3% -24.2% 43% 43% -93.4%
≤30d 37 -30.9% -37.5% 46% 30% -45.2%
≤90d 362 -9.9% -18.4% 62% 37% -16.3%
all 544 -6.9% -15.7% 60% 36% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 36% -17.3%
10% -23.8% 25% -25.2%
15% -31.2% 21% -32.5%
20% -37.9% 18% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 49% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +7% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$100 vs −$191 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

192d coverage
Net worth$345
Realized−$8,099
Unrealized+$26
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses328 / 216
Whale WR (big bets)49%
Est. fees paid−$304
Open positions12
Markets (closed)544 / 556
History coverage192d
Avg bet$179
Trades / day13.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 544 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? No 93¢ 100¢ $62 $66 +$5 (+7%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 95¢ $39 $41 +$1 (+4%)
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond? No 80¢ 98¢ $32 $39 +$7 (+22%)
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 92¢ 100¢ $32 $35 +$3 (+9%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 19¢ $14 $25 +$11 (+76%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 25¢ 23¢ $27 $25 −$2 (-8%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 85¢ 80¢ $25 $23 −$1 (-5%)
Will Pedri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 95¢ 99¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+4%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? No 50¢ 58¢ $12 $13 +$2 (+16%)
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 100¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+5%)
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 93¢ 90¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $432 −$432 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $109 −$107 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $76 +$33 +44%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $33 +$42 +127%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $135 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 17 $30 +$5 +16%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 17 $4,027 −$4,027 -100%
Will Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election? Jun 04 $54 −$12 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 04 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 04 $590 −$590 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 02 $490 +$510 +104%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Jun 02 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 02 $134 +$64 +48%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Mariano Navone Jun 02 $202 −$202 -100%
Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? Jun 02 $308 −$308 -100%
Gwangju FC vs. Gangwon FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 02 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Sydney FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC end in a draw? Jun 02 $200 −$200 -100%
Sydney FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 02 $175 −$175 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Marin Cilic vs Martin Landaluce Jun 02 $405 −$405 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Corentin Moutet vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz Jun 02 $305 −$305 -100%
Will ES Troyes AC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 02 $523 −$523 -100%
Will Gangwon FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 02 $320 −$320 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 02 $2,080 −$2,080 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 02 $3,920 −$3,920 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 02 $5,373 +$3,695 +69%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 28 $22 +$12 +56%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 28 $54 +$3 +6%
Will Manchester United finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standing May 28 $47 +$9 +18%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 28 $143 +$6 +4%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 28 $109 +$5 +4%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 28 $114 +$3 +3%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 28 $119 +$3 +3%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 28 $111 +$9 +8%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 28 $494 +$54 +11%
Sydney FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: Both Teams to Score May 28 $975 +$518 +53%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the May 28 $125 −$7 -5%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the May 09 $889 −$237 -27%
Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $204 +$337 +165%
Gangwon FC vs. Pohang Steelers FC: O/U 2.5 May 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 09 $301 −$301 -100%
Will Gangwon FC win on 2026-05-05? May 09 $171 −$171 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Patrick Kypson vs Titouan May 09 $902 −$902 -100%
Racing Club de Lens vs. FC Nantes: O/U 2.5 May 09 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 09 $1,860 −$1,860 -100%
Will Venezia FC win on 2026-05-08? May 09 $606 +$303 +50%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Simona Waltert vs Hailey Baptiste May 09 $202 +$137 +68%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-08? May 09 $200 +$800 +400%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $662 +$485 +73%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $1,140 +$660 +58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 54¢ $109 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 69¢ $76 8h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 44¢ $33 24h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $25 24h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $432 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 76¢ $1,016 19d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 76¢ $68 19d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 19d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 76¢ $41 19d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 76¢ $8 19d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 76¢ $3 19d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 76¢ $3 19d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 76¢ $8 19d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 76¢ $3 19d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 76¢ $317 19d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 76¢ $6 19d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 76¢ $23 19d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 76¢ $3 19d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 76¢ $3 19d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 76¢ $3 19d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 76¢ $8 19d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 76¢ $3 19d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 76¢ $37 19d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 76¢ $25 19d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 76¢ $8 19d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 19d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 76¢ $16 19d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 19d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 76¢ $100 19d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 76¢ $16 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $344.68 · official $344.80 (match) · 3170 history records