Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:41:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
32 0x32df…3a4e weather 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 218d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$24 (+4%) realized +$27 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR66%break-even
Win rate76%31W / 10L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$39
7 days−$15
14 days+$11
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 58% +$54
sports 17% −$40
world 9% −$15
politics 6% +$11
culture 6% +$3
other 2% $0
tech 2% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +66%
net ROI/market (all)-1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -1.8% -11.1% 74% 74% -14.1%
≤30d 41 +8.6% -1.8% 76% 66% -6.3%
≤90d 41 +8.6% -1.8% 76% 66% -6.3%
all 41 +8.6% -1.8% 76% 66% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.8% 66% -6.3%
10% -11.2% 29% -15.3%
15% -19.8% 17% -23.5%
20% -27.6% 12% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$9 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

218d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized+$27
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses31 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)41 / 44
History coverage218d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? No 77¢ 69¢ $18 $16 −$2 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? No 91¢ 82¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $12 −$12 -97%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 16 $35 +$4 +11%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $17 −$15 -88%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $8 −$8 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $27 +$3 +12%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $20 −$15 -76%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $10 +$2 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$5 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 +$11 +54%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $14 −$14 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $9 +$2 +25%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $6 +$2 +41%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $8 +$2 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $22 +$3 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 +$5 +56%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $8 +$2 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $26 +$4 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $20 +$3 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 9? Jun 09 $9 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 8? Jun 08 $25 +$5 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $6 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $8 +$2 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 5? Jun 05 $22 +$2 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 5? Jun 05 $27 +$5 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 4? Jun 04 $7 +$3 +47%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $2 +$8 +438%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 04 $20 +$4 +22%
Will Lee Won-taek win the 2026 Jeonbuk Province Gubernatorial Election Jun 03 $11 −$7 -64%
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 03 $10 +$2 +15%
Will voter turnout be between 55% and 60% in the 2026 Seoul mayoral el Jun 03 $4 −$3 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 3? Jun 03 $10 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 3? Jun 03 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 2? Jun 02 $15 +$4 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 1? Jun 01 $9 −$8 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 1? Jun 01 $7 +$2 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 29? Jun 01 $20 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 28? May 28 $18 +$3 +18%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 400k and 450k? May 23 $34 +$3 +7%
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card) May 18 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) May 18 $7 −$7 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Car May 18 $14 +$20 +140%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 77¢ $18 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No $0 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 78¢ $16 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 SELL Over $2 8h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 SELL Over $0 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 91¢ $12 10h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $17 10h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $30 10h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $0 16h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $8 16h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 20¢ $5 20h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $20 21h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 82¢ $10 25h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 89¢ $27 33h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 69¢ $6 40h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 79¢ $8 42h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 46h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 64¢ $20 46h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY 40¢ $15 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY No 77¢ $8 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $13 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 79¢ $9 3d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 79¢ $8 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? BUY No 87¢ $22 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $30 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? BUY No 63¢ $8 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 11? BUY No 87¢ $26 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 9? BUY No 89¢ $9 7d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 9? BUY No 88¢ $20 7d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 8? BUY No 68¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.12 · official $27.13 (match) · 99 history records