Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T14:35:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

32
0x32db…0d39
weather · 176 markets active 1h ago
4.0score
+$16 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$16 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$32
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses160 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)169 / 176
History coverage88d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 7 History 169 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$4
14 days+$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 3? Yes 98¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +158%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C or below on June 11? Jun 11 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 6? Jun 06 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C or below on June 5? Jun 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 5? Jun 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 4? Jun 05 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 4? Jun 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 78°F or higher on June 3? Jun 04 $10 $0 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 3? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C or below on June 3? Jun 04 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 3? Jun 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 3? Jun 03 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C or below on June 3? Jun 03 $2 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 3? Jun 03 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 3? Jun 03 $2 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 3? Jun 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 3? Jun 03 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 03 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 2? Jun 02 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 2? Jun 02 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 1? Jun 01 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 31? Jun 01 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on May 29? May 30 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C or below on May 29? May 30 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on May 28? May 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 28? May 29 $1 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 28? May 29 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C or below on May 28? May 28 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on May 27? May 28 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 26? May 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 25? May 25 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 25? May 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 24? May 24 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C or below on May 24? May 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on May 23? May 23 $1 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on May 18? May 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or below on May 18? May 22 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on May 18? May 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 17? May 17 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 21°C or below on May 16? May 15 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on May 15? May 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 7°C or below on May 15? May 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on May 14? May 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk attend Trump’s Xi summit? May 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C or below on May 13? May 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C or below on May 13? May 13 $20 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 98% +$12
other 1% +$3
politics 0% $0
world 0% $0
finance 0% $0
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $2 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 20h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 20h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 36h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $10 37h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $10 37h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C or below on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $20 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $20 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 6? BUY No 99¢ $10 7d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $15 9d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 3? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 9d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C or below on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $30 9d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 4? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 9d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 3? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 9d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 3? BUY Yes 84¢ $2 10d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $10 10d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C or below on June 3? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 10d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 78°F or higher on June 3? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 10d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $10 10d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C or below on June 3? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 11d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 2? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 11d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 3? BUY No 97¢ $1 12d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $10 12d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 3? BUY No 98¢ $10 12d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 2? BUY No 99¢ $10 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +25.2% +13.3% 86% 29% -4.6%
≤30d 45 +3.6% -6.3% 96% 9% -9.2%
≤90d 169 +1.5% -8.1% 95% 6% -8.8%
all 169 +1.5% -8.1% 95% 6% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 6% -8.8%
10% -16.9% 4% -17.6%
15% -25.0% 3% -25.5%
20% -32.3% 2% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.04 · official $32.04 (match) · 347 history records