Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:00:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
32 0x32db…12aa other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,660 (-32%) realized −$4,616 · open −$44
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,458per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Kalshi-fit10%portable
Net worth$1,952now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% −$5,430
crypto 1% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -14.3% -22.5% 56% 56% -48.5%
≤30d 9 -14.3% -22.5% 56% 56% -48.5%
≤90d 9 -14.3% -22.5% 56% 56% -48.5%
all 9 -14.3% -22.5% 56% 56% -48.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.5% 56% -48.5%
10% -29.9% 44% -53.4%
15% -36.7% 33% -57.9%
20% -42.9% 11% -62.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 93% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -43% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$303 vs −$1,723 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$1,952
Realized−$4,616
Unrealized−$44
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage6d
Avg bet$1,458
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $1,996 $1,952 −$44 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $2,611 −$524 -20%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,712 +$795 +46%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $99 +$11 +11%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $2,935 −$2,932 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,099 +$614 +56%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3,716 −$3,416 -92%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $209 +$68 +32%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $79 +$29 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $2,095 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 75¢ $636 5h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 74¢ $1,451 5h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $2,611 6h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 93¢ $110 12h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 77¢ $99 12h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $1,712 29h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $1,099 45h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 73¢ $2,935 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 7¢ $301 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $3,716 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $277 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $209 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $108 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $79 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $21 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,951.97 · official $1,951.97 (match) · 21 history records