Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:33:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x32d8…2794 other 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$381 (-34%) realized −$116 · open −$265
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -73% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -78% what you keep after slip
Net edge-78%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate11%1W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day10.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit21%portable
Net worth$435now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% −$494
sports 14% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-75.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -73.4% -75.9% 11% 11% -84.8%
≤30d 9 -73.4% -75.9% 11% 11% -84.8%
≤90d 9 -73.4% -75.9% 11% 11% -84.8%
all 9 -73.4% -75.9% 11% 11% -84.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -75.9% 11% -84.8%
10% -78.2% 11% -86.3%
15% -80.3% 11% -87.6%
20% -82.2% 11% -88.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -83% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -73% · $-wt -83% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$34 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$435
Realized−$116
Unrealized−$265
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses1 / 8
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions5
Markets (closed)9 / 19
History coverage2d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $500 $303 −$197 (-39%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 28¢ 22¢ $30 $24 −$6 (-20%)
Will Dustin Johnson win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $40 $10 −$30 (-76%)
Will Robert MacIntyre win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $30 $1 −$29 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $154 −$150 -98%
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Alexander Noren win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$28 +140%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Bryson DeChambeau win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 1h
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 5¢ $103 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 4h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 7¢ $51 6h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 6h
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 8¢ $206 6h
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 9h
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 9h
Will Dustin Johnson win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 30h
Will Alexander Noren win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06- BUY 14¢ $21 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AN BUY 5¢ $21 2d
Will Robert MacIntyre win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 2¢ $31 2d
Will Dustin Johnson win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 2d
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 2d
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 34¢ $31 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 7¢ $10 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 17¢ $20 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 2d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 2d
Will Alexander Noren win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 2d
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 2d
Will Bryson DeChambeau win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $435.43 · official $435.44 (match) · 27 history records