Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:19:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x32d7…454c crypto 310 markets active 12h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$19 (-1%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate80%247W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day16.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days+$5
14 days−$25
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 +2.1% -7.7% 89% 31% -7.7%
≤30d 310 -4.5% -13.6% 80% 28% -10.8%
≤90d 310 -4.5% -13.6% 80% 28% -10.8%
all 310 -4.5% -13.6% 80% 28% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 28% -10.8%
10% -21.9% 10% -19.3%
15% -29.4% 5% -27.1%
20% -36.3% 5% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses247 / 63
Open positions0
Markets (closed)310 / 310
History coverage20d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day16.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 310 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$3 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$3 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$2 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$3 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$3 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $4 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $4 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $4 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $4 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $4 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $4 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $4 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $2 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $4 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $4 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $4 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $4 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $4 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $4 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $4 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 620 history records