Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:33:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x32d1…b949 world 265 markets active 0h ago coverage 366d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4,187 (+4%) realized +$5,398 · open −$1,211
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate28%70W / 181L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$415per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$692now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$148
7 days−$114
14 days−$988
30 days−$945
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 74% +$11,658
other 10% −$4,354
politics 8% +$248
finance 3% −$504
culture 3% −$903
crypto 1% −$415
sports 1% −$246
economics 1% −$161
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +11.8% +1.2% 67% 67% -13.5%
≤30d 27 +10.3% -0.2% 30% 26% -20.2%
≤90d 126 -5.9% -14.9% 29% 22% -36.5%
all 251 -1.7% -11.1% 28% 21% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 21% -3.9%
10% -19.6% 15% -13.1%
15% -27.4% 12% -21.5%
20% -34.5% 12% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$614 vs −$205 · ×3.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

366d coverage
Net worth$692
Realized+$5,398
Unrealized−$1,211
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses70 / 181
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Open positions14
Markets (closed)251 / 265
History coverage366d
Avg bet$415
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 251 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Yes 20¢ 5¢ $1,578 $372 −$1,206 (-76%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $88 $148 +$61 (+69%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $59 $41 −$18 (-31%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $27 $26 −$2 (-6%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Yes 1¢ 8¢ $2 $20 +$18 (+1014%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? Yes 23¢ 20¢ $23 $20 −$4 (-15%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $19 $17 −$2 (-10%)
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $16 $14 −$2 (-12%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $40 $13 −$28 (-68%)
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+6%)
Will Vladimir Putin be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-23%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $6 $4 −$1 (-20%)
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 10–15%? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $12 $2 −$10 (-84%)
Will another candidate win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $17 $2 −$16 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $2,375 −$148 -6%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 15 $9 +$2 +25%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Jun 14 $186 +$32 +17%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 12 $55 +$391 +708%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An Jun 07 $647 −$642 -99%
Will Karen Bass finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Angel Jun 07 $28 −$28 -99%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $421 −$114 -27%
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Jun 06 $60 +$14 +23%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $1,073 −$182 -17%
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Jun 06 $49 −$20 -41%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey? Jun 06 $9 −$7 -79%
Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 06 $281 −$276 -98%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $30 −$5 -16%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 05 $42 +$141 +334%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 03 $687 +$94 +14%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Jun 03 $475 +$10 +2%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 03 $343 −$174 -51%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 31 $565 −$153 -27%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 28 $44 −$33 -75%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 28 $21 −$18 -85%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $49 −$12 -24%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $118 +$342 +289%
Will the flotilla reach Gaza by May 31? May 21 $19 −$16 -85%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 21 $20 −$17 -85%
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31? May 21 $34 −$32 -92%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $337 −$90 -27%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 12 $56 +$11 +21%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 10 $56 −$56 -100%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 10 $61 +$16 +26%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 10 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 10 $34 −$32 -96%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? May 07 $34 −$34 -100%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 15, 2026? May 06 $13 +$2 +18%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? May 06 $16 $0 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April? Apr 28 $20 +$1 +7%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Apr 27 $163 −$93 -57%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30? Apr 27 $229 −$43 -19%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? Apr 26 $504 −$110 -22%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $682 −$285 -42%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Apr 26 $1,503 −$170 -11%
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, Apr 21 $58 +$13 +22%
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, Apr 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April? Apr 21 $54 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April? Apr 21 $33 −$9 -26%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $75 −$18 -24%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? Apr 20 $22 −$12 -54%
Israel strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026? Apr 19 $213 +$515 +242%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 18 $83 −$30 -36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $665 9m
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $14 11m
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 1¢ $34 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Vladimir Putin be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 0¢ $9 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 1h
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 14h
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 14h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $23 14h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $27 14h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 33¢ $66 17h
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $26 19h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 19h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $13 22h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 39¢ $117 24h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 50¢ $100 40h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $93 40h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $36 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 28¢ $616 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $93 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $62 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $56 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 40¢ $75 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $24 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $8 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $692.30 · official $692.30 (match) · 2478 history records