Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:35:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x32cf…db1c world 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 452d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate48%13W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% −$1
other 22% $0
crypto 6% $0
politics 4% $0
sports 4% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -1.0% -10.4% 25% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 8 +0.7% -8.9% 50% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 13 +0.4% -9.2% 46% 0% -9.6%
all 27 +0.5% -9.1% 48% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 0% -9.6%
10% -17.8% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.7% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 61% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

452d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses13 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage452d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 24 $32 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $29 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $32 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $19 −$1 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 27 $48 −$1 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $59 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $2 $0 +7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $29 +$1 +3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 24 $30 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $29 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 22 $30 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 21 $33 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $30 $0 +0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 17 $2 $0 -1%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi Jun 26 $18 $0 -2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 +4%
Will Scottie Scheffler win The 2025 U.S. Open? Jun 17 $2 $0 +6%
Will Susan Crawford win by 8-10%? May 17 $23 $0 +0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Apr 07 $19 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in April? Apr 06 $19 $0 +0%
Will Marcel Ciolacu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runo Apr 04 $23 $0 +0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 03 $23 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? Apr 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the Serie A? Apr 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 650 or more times March 28 - April 4? Apr 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will Kanye launch a coin in March? Mar 31 $23 $0 +0%
Will McDonald's worker get reward money before April? Mar 30 $23 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 50¢ $32 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 50¢ $32 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $19 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $10 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $29 9h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $32 11h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $32 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $18 29h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 31h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $8 31h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $6 31h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $33 28d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 67¢ $33 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $15 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $14 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $30 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $30 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $30 28d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL Yes $2 29d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY Yes $2 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 60¢ $15 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 60¢ $15 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $6 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $23 29d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 73¢ $29 30d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 74¢ $30 31d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 40¢ $8 31d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 40¢ $6 31d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 42¢ $15 31d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $30 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 75 history records