Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:55:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
32 0x32cd…f6b4 politics 85 markets active 1h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,185 (-1%) realized −$1,185 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate10%8W / 75L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$995per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$798now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$16
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$43
politics 40% −$46
sports 7% −$1,127
economics 4% −$5
world 2% −$2
crypto 2% +$4
culture 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 22 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 83 +1.4% -8.3% 10% 6% -10.8%
all 83 +1.4% -8.3% 10% 6% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 6% -10.8%
10% -17.0% 6% -19.4%
15% -25.0% 5% -27.2%
20% -32.4% 5% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,427) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$18 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$798
Realized−$1,185
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses8 / 75
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions2
Markets (closed)83 / 85
History coverage83d
Avg bet$995
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $525 $525 −$0 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $273 $273 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $2,445 −$4 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,427 −$2 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 15 $1,348 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $886 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $653 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $759 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1,506 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $726 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $772 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $3,736 −$4 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,809 −$2 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $989 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $2,352 −$3 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 04 $417 −$1 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.60 in May? Jun 04 $126 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 04 $326 $0 +0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $548 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $496 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $490 −$1 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 26 $496 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $668 −$1 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 25 $595 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 25 $797 −$1 -0%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 24 $714 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $504 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 23 $1,795 −$2 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $2,779 −$4 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $727 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $558 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 22 $728 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 21 $830 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $829 −$1 -0%
Will SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? May 21 $41 +$13 +32%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $584 −$1 -0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 20 $29 +$25 +86%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $599 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $940 −$1 -0%
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins May 19 $22 +$20 +90%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $496 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 18 $1,141 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $594 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 18 $603 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $1,396 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $598 −$1 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 16 $963 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $1,859 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 16 $599 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $606 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 15 $602 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $1,199 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $273 1h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $525 2d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $832 7d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $833 7d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $695 7d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $696 7d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $862 8d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $863 8d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $885 8d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $886 8d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $652 9d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $653 9d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $758 11d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $759 11d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $880 11d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $882 11d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $724 11d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $726 12d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $771 12d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $772 12d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $630 16d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $631 16d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $960 17d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $962 17d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $988 18d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $989 18d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $583 18d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $584 19d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $813 19d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $814 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $798.16 · official $798.16 (match) · 242 history records