Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:41:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x32cd…2589 sports 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$196 (-43%) realized −$196 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate50%9W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day11.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$116
other 34% −$71
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-41.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -35.0% -41.2% 50% 44% -47.4%
≤30d 18 -35.0% -41.2% 50% 44% -47.4%
≤90d 18 -35.0% -41.2% 50% 44% -47.4%
all 18 -35.0% -41.2% 50% 44% -47.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.2% 44% -47.4%
10% -46.8% 33% -52.4%
15% -51.9% 17% -57.0%
20% -56.7% 6% -61.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 53% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$26 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$196
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses9 / 9
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage2d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day11.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $20 +$11 +54%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A Jun 19 $64 +$4 +6%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $53 +$11 +20%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $30 −$29 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 −$9 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -96%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $10 −$9 -96%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $50 +$15 +29%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $7 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? Jun 18 $10 +$3 +32%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $1 $0 +40%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 +$1 +34%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $6 +$2 +38%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $54 −$52 -97%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $57 −$55 -96%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $50 −$49 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $5 +$1 +16%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner SELL InterActive Philippines 100¢ $31 39m
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 63¢ $20 59m
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A SELL Amaru Gaming 100¢ $69 1h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A BUY Amaru Gaming 92¢ $64 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? SELL Yes 13¢ $64 6h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 10¢ $53 7h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 48¢ $30 8h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 31¢ $10 9h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 8¢ $15 9h
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 9h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 76¢ $50 28h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 26¢ $7 29h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? SELL Yes 10¢ $14 29h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 30h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 49¢ $1 31h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 33¢ $1 31h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 82¢ $3 32h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $2 32h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 71¢ $6 33h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 35¢ $54 35h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 9¢ $57 36h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $50 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 38¢ $6 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 31¢ $5 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 27 history records