Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:30:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
32 0x32ca…2f70 other 221 markets active 2h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$180 (+2%) realized +$294 · open −$114
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate63%136W / 81L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$86now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$190
7 days+$217
14 days+$201
30 days+$201
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% −$11
world 27% +$130
weather 19% −$53
sports 18% +$9
politics 1% −$2
finance 0% −$15
crypto 0% −$2
culture 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 -1.3% -10.7% 63% 60% -3.1%
≤30d 87 -2.5% -11.8% 62% 59% -3.6%
≤90d 128 -9.6% -18.2% 58% 54% -8.2%
all 217 -3.3% -12.5% 63% 52% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 52% -7.7%
10% -20.9% 38% -16.5%
15% -28.5% 30% -24.6%
20% -35.5% 21% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$18 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$86
Realized+$294
Unrealized−$114
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses136 / 81
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions4
Markets (closed)217 / 221
History coverage137d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 217 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 84¢ 52¢ $100 $62 −$37 (-37%)
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 Over 77¢ 20¢ $50 $13 −$37 (-75%)
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Yes 65¢ 20¢ $25 $8 −$17 (-69%)
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Yes 30¢ 4¢ $25 $3 −$22 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bruno Fernandes: 2+ shots Jun 23 $25 +$5 +21%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $50 +$8 +16%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $50 +$12 +24%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$26 +52%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Neither team to score first? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $50 +$19 +38%
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $50 +$13 +26%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $1 +$5 +510%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $50 +$5 +10%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $50 +$24 +48%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $50 +$7 +14%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 22 $26 −$25 -97%
Norway vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $1 +$6 +550%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $151 +$69 +46%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $51 +$33 +65%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $100 +$12 +12%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $50 +$8 +16%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$21 +42%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 +$22 +44%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 +$7 +13%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $25 +$12 +48%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $50 +$9 +18%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $25 +$19 +73%
Tijjani Reijnders: 2+ shots Jun 20 $20 +$18 +90%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $25 +$5 +18%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$24 +24%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $50 +$7 +13%
Cody Gakpo: 3+ shots Jun 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Donyell Malen: 1+ shots Jun 20 $25 −$25 -99%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $25 +$5 +20%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $50 −$50 -99%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $50 −$50 -99%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 20 $25 +$23 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $26 1h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 65¢ $25 1h
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $50 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $50 5h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $50 5h
Bruno Fernandes: 2+ shots BUY Yes 82¢ $25 5h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 18h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 18h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 7¢ $26 22h
Norway vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 23h
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 72¢ $50 23h
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 0.5 BUY Over 79¢ $50 23h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 25h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $50 26h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $50 26h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 87¢ $50 26h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 30h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 30h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 30h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $51 30h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $151 30h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $50 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 86¢ $50 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $85.77 · official $96.34 · 462 history records