Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:18:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
32 0x32c8…df47 crypto 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 162d
RISKYcopy with care Fading edge⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$39 (+1%) realized +$46 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +49% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +34% what you keep after slip
Net edge+34%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate52%14W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$148per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$453now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$132
7 days+$132
14 days+$132
30 days+$226
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% −$8
crypto 24% −$2
other 23% +$115
world 11% −$79
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+34.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +55.6% +40.8% 100% 100% +37.6%
≤30d 4 +49.4% +35.2% 100% 100% +27.2%
≤90d 7 +30.5% +18.0% 86% 71% +7.6%
all 27 +48.7% +34.5% 52% 33% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +34.5% 33% -8.9%
10% +21.6% 30% -17.6%
15% +9.9% 19% -25.5%
20% -0.9% 11% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% too few recent
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +49% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +106% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$23 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$453
Realized+$46
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses14 / 13
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)27 / 34
History coverage162d
Avg bet$148
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$37 +73%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$44 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$50 +50%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? May 19 $304 +$94 +31%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? May 01 $281 +$24 +8%
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch? Mar 23 $299 −$18 -6%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Mar 23 $265 +$34 +13%
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 17 $257 +$8 +3%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Mar 02 $253 +$5 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $100 −$69 -69%
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? Feb 28 $100 −$8 -8%
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026? Feb 28 $100 −$7 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 3AM ET Feb 26 $110 −$110 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Feb 26 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Feb 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Feb 26 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 12AM ET Feb 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 11PM ET Feb 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Feb 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 1AM ET Feb 25 $1 +$4 +373%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Feb 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Feb 25 $1 +$15 +1548%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 24 $1,945 −$28 -1%
Trail Blazers vs. Celtics Jan 27 $49 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in January? Jan 16 $100 +$2 +2%
Hawks vs. Lakers Jan 14 $20 +$6 +28%
Nuggets vs. Pelicans Jan 14 $56 +$14 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 1h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $51 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 23h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 23h
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? SELL No 98¢ $398 29d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? BUY No 73¢ $304 41d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $305 47d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? BUY No 92¢ $281 66d
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch? SELL Yes 49¢ $281 85d
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 52¢ $299 86d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? SELL No 98¢ $299 86d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? BUY No 86¢ $265 92d
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL No 97¢ $265 92d
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 94¢ $257 97d
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $253 109d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $31 109d
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? SELL No 69¢ $92 109d
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026? SELL No 68¢ $93 109d
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $100 109d
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $100 109d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $100 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 3AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $10 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 3AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $100 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $20 111d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $452.71 · official $452.71 (match) · 73 history records