Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:34:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x32c6…047d other 70 markets active 2h ago coverage 370d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%5W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$251per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 39% −$9
other 39% −$6
sports 14% −$3
economics 5% +$3
culture 1% −$1
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 69 -7.6% -16.4% 7% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 0% -9.6%
10% -24.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -31.7% 0% -26.2%
20% -38.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

370d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses5 / 64
Open positions1
Markets (closed)69 / 70
History coverage370d
Avg bet$251
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $217 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $466 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 01 $228 $0 +0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 16 $229 $0 -0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 05 $226 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 26 $229 −$1 -0%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 m Jan 23 $233 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jan 21 $224 $0 +0%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 19 $469 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 15 $228 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 13 $224 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 09 $466 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 06 $697 −$1 -0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 04 $1 $0 -50%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Jan 03 $230 $0 +0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 30 $230 $0 -0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 29 $225 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? Dec 27 $232 $0 -0%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 24 $230 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 22 $226 $0 -0%
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 20 $228 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 18 $467 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 14 $227 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 12 $462 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Dec 01 $51 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 28 $183 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 25 $234 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 24 $230 $0 +0%
Will the New York Jets win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 24 $240 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 21 $232 $0 -0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 11 $229 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 08 $946 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 06 $235 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 03 $237 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 31 $235 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 24 $470 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 21 $235 $0 -0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 19 $240 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 19 $1 $0 -22%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 12 $467 −$1 -0%
Will FIT-U hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following th Oct 10 $232 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 09 $2 $0 -12%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 02 $2 $0 -18%
Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 30 $235 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 21 $236 $0 -0%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Sep 17 $231 +$5 +2%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 12 $237 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? Sep 09 $1 $0 -60%
Will Zellnor Myrie win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 05 $239 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 31 $474 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $217 1h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $217 32h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 32h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $11 2d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $231 2d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $231 18d
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $228 106d
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $228 110d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $229 119d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $229 123d
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $226 130d
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $226 138d
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $228 139d
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $229 142d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $233 144d
Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $224 146d
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $232 146d
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $232 150d
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $228 151d
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $228 152d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $224 153d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $224 155d
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 155d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 100¢ $235 155d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $235 156d
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 156d
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 157d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 100¢ $227 157d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $227 159d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.76 · official $8.76 (match) · 300 history records