Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:09:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

32 0x32c3…5b4e sports 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d

BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ bot/MM pace (71 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL −$16,439 (-42%) realized −$11,908 · open −$4,531

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -47% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -61% what you keep after slip

Net edge-61%after slip

Net WR23%break-even

Win rate23%6W / 20L

Whale WR14%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$1,447per market

Trades / day71.2pace

Fees−$687est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

uncopyable — bot pace (71 trades/day)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +23%

net ROI/market (all)-52.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	26	-47.4%	-52.4%	23%	23%	-59.8%
≤30d	26	-47.4%	-52.4%	23%	23%	-59.8%
≤90d	26	-47.4%	-52.4%	23%	23%	-59.8%
all	26	-47.4%	-52.4%	23%	23%	-59.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover71.2 tr/day

realistic slip~15%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-52.4%	23%	-59.8%
10%	-57.0%	23%	-63.7%
15% ← realistic here	-61.1%	23%	-67.2%
20%	-64.9%	23%	-70.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 35% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -56% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -47% · $-wt -56% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 14% (≥$2,073) big bets weaker

Persistence

early -49% → late -46% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

8.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$1,360 vs −$1,334 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.31 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$6

Realized−$11,908

Unrealized−$4,531

Win rate (resolved)23%

Wins / losses6 / 20

Whale WR (big bets)14%

Est. fees paid−$687

Open positions1

Markets (closed)26 / 27

History coverage3d

Avg bet$1,447

Trades / day71.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 26 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner	Solary	38¢	0¢	$4,537	$6	−$4,531 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner	Jun 15	$881	+$1,429	+162%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner	Jun 15	$416	−$409	-98%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner	Jun 14	$826	+$1,209	+146%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner	Jun 14	$1,886	−$1,420	-75%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner	Jun 14	$605	−$605	-100%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner	Jun 14	$377	−$374	-99%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London	Jun 14	$1,106	−$1,097	-99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner	Jun 14	$420	−$412	-98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner	Jun 14	$2,528	−$2,515	-100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner	Jun 14	$2,858	+$2,853	+100%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport - Map 1 Winner	Jun 14	$1,209	−$1,194	-99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner	Jun 14	$5,221	−$5,156	-99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner	Jun 14	$1,799	−$1,771	-98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner	Jun 14	$2,581	−$2,567	-100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner	Jun 14	$354	+$182	+51%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner	Jun 14	$3,147	−$3,087	-98%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs	Jun 13	$676	+$1,314	+194%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America &	Jun 13	$432	−$15	-3%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 4 Winner	Jun 13	$94	−$93	-99%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play	Jun 13	$1,029	+$1,170	+114%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 2 Winner	Jun 13	$101	−$101	-100%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 1 Winner	Jun 13	$741	−$736	-99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner	Jun 12	$2,231	−$2,186	-98%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner	Jun 12	$311	−$310	-100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner	Jun 12	$2,073	−$2,073	-100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner	Jun 12	$569	−$559	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner	BUY Solary	25¢	$325	48m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner	BUY Solary	46¢	$40	50m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner	BUY Solary	46¢	$545	50m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner	BUY Solary	46¢	$24	50m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner	BUY Solary	46¢	$0	50m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner	BUY Solary	44¢	$234	51m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner	BUY Solary	44¢	$22	51m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner	BUY Solary	44¢	$11	51m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner	BUY Solary	44¢	$253	51m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner	BUY Solary	40¢	$538	51m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner	BUY Solary	40¢	$538	51m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner	BUY Solary	35¢	$110	51m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner	BUY Solary	42¢	$565	51m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner	BUY Solary	35¢	$283	52m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner	BUY Solary	35¢	$9	52m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner	BUY Solary	35¢	$26	52m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner	BUY Solary	30¢	$358	52m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner	BUY Solary	43¢	$33	1h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner	BUY Solary	43¢	$2	1h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner	BUY Solary	43¢	$6	1h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner	BUY Solary	43¢	$6	1h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner	BUY Solary	43¢	$2	1h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner	BUY Solary	43¢	$2	1h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner	BUY Solary	43¢	$10	1h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner	BUY Solary	43¢	$29	1h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner	BUY Solary	43¢	$13	1h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner	BUY Solary	43¢	$13	1h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner	BUY Solary	43¢	$2	1h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner	BUY Solary	43¢	$3	1h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner	BUY Solary	43¢	$3	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.04 · official $6.04 (match) · 241 history records