Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:29:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x32c0…320d crypto 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (136 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate76%19W / 6L
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day136.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (136 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +9.3% -1.2% 76% 40% -6.6%
≤30d 25 +9.3% -1.2% 76% 40% -6.6%
≤90d 25 +9.3% -1.2% 76% 40% -6.6%
all 25 +9.3% -1.2% 76% 40% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover136.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.2% 40% -6.6%
10% ← realistic here -10.6% 28% -15.5%
15% -19.2% 12% -23.7%
20% -27.2% 12% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$9 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses19 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage1d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day136.0
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 22 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 22 $11 +$8 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 22 $15 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 22 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 22 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 22 $35 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 22 $15 +$5 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 22 $22 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 22 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 22 $40 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 22 $35 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 22 $35 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 22 $34 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$8 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 21 $39 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 21 $15 +$15 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 21 $17 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 21 $18 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 21 $16 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 21 $19 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 21 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 21 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 21 $6 +$1 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $17 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $16 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $16 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 46m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 163 history records