Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:15:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
32 0x32c0…346c crypto 128 markets active 2h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$123 (+3%) realized +$129 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate54%68W / 58L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$50
7 days+$50
14 days+$50
30 days+$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% +$71
other 4% −$5
sports 4% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +61.3% +45.9% 75% 75% +45.8%
≤30d 4 +61.3% +45.9% 75% 75% +45.8%
≤90d 12 -19.8% -27.4% 33% 33% -7.7%
all 126 +1.5% -8.2% 54% 45% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 45% -7.0%
10% -17.0% 39% -15.9%
15% -25.0% 33% -24.0%
20% -32.3% 29% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$13 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized+$129
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses68 / 58
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)126 / 128
History coverage112d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 52¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $20 +$14 +68%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 21 $20 +$19 +95%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $20 −$4 -21%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $20 +$21 +103%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 10 $10 −$10 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 10 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 10 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 10 $5 −$2 -41%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 10 $5 +$8 +146%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 10 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Apr 17 $15 −$13 -88%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Apr 17 $15 −$14 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Mar 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Mar 14 $2 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Mar 14 $18 −$18 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Mar 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Mar 14 $11 −$11 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Mar 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Mar 14 $56 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Mar 14 $10 +$9 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Mar 14 $8 +$14 +171%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Mar 14 $10 −$5 -54%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Mar 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Mar 14 $10 +$5 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Mar 14 $10 −$7 -67%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Mar 14 $12 −$10 -84%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Mar 14 $10 +$15 +150%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Mar 14 $10 −$2 -20%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Mar 14 $10 +$6 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Mar 14 $10 −$3 -27%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Mar 14 $10 +$15 +153%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Mar 14 $10 −$2 -18%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Mar 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Mar 14 $10 +$8 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Mar 14 $10 +$8 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Mar 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Mar 14 $10 +$2 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Mar 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Mar 14 $10 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Mar 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Mar 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Mar 14 $15 +$14 +91%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Mar 14 $10 +$20 +200%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Mar 13 $9 −$9 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Mar 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Mar 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Mar 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Mar 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Mar 13 $10 +$12 +124%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Mar 13 $12 −$10 -87%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 94¢ $34 1h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 1h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $40 2h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $20 5h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $20 5h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $20 10h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 21¢ $16 11h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 26¢ $20 12h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $41 12h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $20 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 42d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 42d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 42d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $3 42d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 42d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 42d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 42d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $2 65d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 65d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $10 65d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 65d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $10 65d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 99d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $2 99d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 99d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $8 99d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $10 99d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $10 99d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 99d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $10 99d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.49 · official $19.49 (match) · 250 history records